Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Yevlakh City Stadium (Yevlakh)

Referee: Jabarov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Karvan		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.7	4.95	1.29	Watch
	9.57	5.15	1.29
	7.15	4.49	1.38	Watch
	9	4.6	1.3
	9.1	4.9	1.27
	7.8	4.9	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.39 ↑ (7.85)	4.83 ↓ (4.88)	1.31 ↑ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Karvan
10.9%

Draw
18.9%

Neftchi Baku
70.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

18.6%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

18%

72.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Karvan - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Neftchi will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 6. Abdullayev V. (C) 21. Barker I. 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 20. Mickels J. 16. Rustamli R. 5. Rustamov E. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 33. Turabov E.	1. Balayev E. (G) 15. Badalov E. 33. Breno Almeida 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 18. Mathew I. 22. Ortiz L. 77. Sacko F. 7. Safarov E. 10. Vargas F.
Substitutes
77. Abdullayev A. 17. Abdullayev S. 18. Ahmadov S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 4. Doyeni O. 10. Durrant S. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 37. Ngwisani M. 42. Qadirzada I.	91. Azizov N. (G) 4. Camalov E. 28. Curci A. 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 47. Mammadov M. 13. Piric K. (G) 23. Rezabala J. 19. Salyanskiy A. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A.
Coaches
Mammadov F.	Vernidub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Ortiz L. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Faraj I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 0 - 2, Mahmudov E. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Barker I. ↓, Ngwisani M. ↑,
55', Kings P. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
57', 0 - 3, Vargas F. ⚽,
64', Mathew I. ↓, Camalov E. ↑,
64', Vargas F. ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
69', Badalov E. ↓, Khachayev M. ↑,
69', Safarov E. ↓, Rezabala J. ↑,
71', Spence K. C. ↓, Durrant S. ↑,
71', Mickels J. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
79', Turabov E. 🟨,
80', Mahmudov E. ↓, Salyanskiy A. ↑,
81', Faraj I. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Karvan have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Neftchi is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Karvan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Neftchi is the obvious favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
27.04.26	Sabah - Karvan	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Karvan - Shamakhi	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Karvan - Kapaz	4:1 ✺
06.04.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Karvan	7:0 ✺
19.03.26	Karvan - Zira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWLL
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:5 ✺
17.04.26	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
20.12.25	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	1:2
27.09.25	Neftchi Baku - Karvan	0:0

Upcoming Matches