Match Info

League Two - Promotion Group - Round 26

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Taiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass (Taiyuan) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	15:00	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai		Jiangxi Lushan

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.00	3.50
	1.73	3.25	4.35	Watch
	2.08	2.87	3.87
	1.86	3.29	4.1	Watch
	2.05	2.80	3.80
	2.04	2.93	4.19	Watch
	1.90	2.95	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.7)	3.01 ↓ (3.35)	3.94 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
46.7%

Draw
30.2%

Jiangxi Lushan
23.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.7%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

26%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shanxi Chongde Ronghai's form might have worsened.

Jiangxi Lushan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanxi Chongde Ronghai than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shanxi Chongde Ronghai, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jiangxi Lushan than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai - Jiangxi Lushan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Zhang Haixuan (G) 16. Ding Yunfeng 60. Zhang Junzhe 39. Zhang Tianlong 24. Wang Haowen 38. Zhang Hui 10. Iskandar B. (C) 22. Li Jinyu 19. Wu Linfeng 9. Palmanjan K. 33. Chen Xiangyu	12. Li Chen (G) 27. Zhang Yanjun (C) 21. Zhu X. 5. Shi Jiwei 22. Li Jiahao 30. Huang J. 33. Guo Song 11. Bai Zijian 26. Pi Ziyang 16. Chen Yunhua 7. Sun Yue
Substitutes
28. Chen Shaohao 55. He L. 30. Ling Zhongyang 8. Luan H. 49. Lu Jiajun 37. Nurlan Nurzat 4. Wang J. 15. Wang Kuan (G) 26. Xie Jinzheng 23. Yang Yixuan 31. Zhuoyu Y. (G) 20. Zhu Y.	8. Cao Enze 2. He Quan 1. Liang J. (G) 6. Liu G. 24. Li Yan 15. Luo B. 35. Ren Y. 4. Zhang G. 14. Zhou Jingxiang
Coaches
Cao Rui	Choi Jin-han

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Wang Haowen ↓, Wang J. ↑,
16', Guo Song 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Ding Yunfeng ⚽, Chen Xiangyu (A),
35', Wu Linfeng 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Zhang Yanjun ⚽, Li Jiahao (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wu Linfeng ↓, Nurlan Nurzat ↑,
59', Zhu X. ↓, Zhang G. ↑,
65', Li Jinyu 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Iskandar B. ⚽,
72', Pi Ziyang ↓, Zhou Jingxiang ↑,
72', Bai Zijian ↓, Cao Enze ↑,
77', Cao Enze 🟨,
78', Guo Song ↓, Li Yan ↑,
78', Sun Yue ↓, Luo B. ↑,
87', Iskandar B. ↓, Ling Zhongyang ↑,
90+1', Cao Rui 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Shanxi holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Shanxi has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:4 (averaging 0.5:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Shanxi against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:3 goals.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	28	15	5	8	33:20	13	50
8	Jiangxi Lushan	28	11	6	11	29:26	3	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Chinese Yi League
06.10.26	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue - Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai - Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Shenzhen 2028 - Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai - Lanzhou Longyuan	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Qingdao Red Lions - Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWLTL
- Jiangxi Lushan
Chinese Yi League
07.10.26	Jiangxi Lushan - Dalian Kewei	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Jiangxi Lushan - Shandong Taishan B	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Shanghai Port B - Jiangxi Lushan	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Chengdu Rongcheng B - Jiangxi Lushan	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	Jiangxi Lushan - Xiamen Feilu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Yi League
31.05.25	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai - Jiangxi Lushan	0:3
22.03.25	Jiangxi Lushan - Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1:1

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai - Jiangxi Lushan