Match Info

FNL - Round 5

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl)

Referee: Lapatukhin A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Shinnik		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.71	3.05	2.93
	2.85	2.85	2.8
	2.51	3.03	3.13	Watch
	2.41	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.34)	2.96 ↓ (3.17)	2.92 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shinnik
35.9%

Draw
31.8%

Arsenal Tula
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

29.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.9%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shinnik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shinnik, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Shinnik - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Mitrov T. (G) 77. Antonov A. 24. Azyavin I. 27. Chernyi A. 23. Chistyakov N. 50. Golubev A. 10. Gongapshev A. 62. Karpov V. 2. Kosogorov A. 64. Lanin O. (C) 11. Porokhov I.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 9. Davidyan D. 35. Enin I. 19. Glushkov N. 17. Gorbunov I. 24. Gotsuk K. (C) 45. Karmaev N. 11. Magomedov R. 4. Penchikov D. 21. Razdorskikh N. 8. Shamkin D.
Substitutes
49. Karaev M. 53. Kotin N. 33. Lavrenkov A. 7. Martovoy D. 88. Mironov D. 21. Pushkarev D. 15. Samoylov D. 54. Shmakov I. 17. Valiakhmetov E. 95. Vambolt D. (G)	82. Alekhin A. 25. Biryukov A. 44. Isaenko O. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 23. Melekestsev T. 77. Plotnikov D. 7. Tamarindo 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 22. Uridia G. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Boyarintsev D.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Azyavin I. ⚽,
21', Antonov A. ↓, Martovoy D. ↑,
28', Golubev A. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Azyavin I. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Davidyan D. ↓, Melekestsev T. ↑,
46', Gotsuk K. ↓, Plotnikov D. ↑,
46', Enin I. ↓, Krashevskiy Y. ↑,
54', 2 - 1, Gorbunov I. ⚽,
56', 2 - 2, Melekestsev T. ⚽,
58', Azyavin I. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
59', Golubev A. ↓, Shmakov I. ↑,
59', Porokhov I. ↓, Pushkarev D. ↑,
73', Gongapshev A. ↓, Samoylov D. ↑,
75', Gorbunov I. ↓, Tamarindo ↑,
83', Magomedov R. ↓, Biryukov A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:18. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Shinnik won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.78% Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	3	7	2	15:13	2	16
12	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	12:22	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Shinnik - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.04%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Arsenal Tula - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Russian FNL
02.08.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Shinnik	3:0 ✺
26.07.26	Torpedo Moscow - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Shinnik - Leningradets	2:0 ✺
12.07.26	Shinnik - Sochi	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.06.26	CSKA Moscow - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 LTWTT
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
02.08.26	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	5:0 ✺
19.07.26	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:1 ✺
13.07.26	Arsenal Tula - Tekstilshchik Ivanovo	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.06.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
18.04.26	Shinnik - Arsenal Tula	2:0
25.07.25	Arsenal Tula - Shinnik	1:1
20.04.25	Shinnik - Arsenal Tula	2:1
26.10.24	Arsenal Tula - Shinnik	1:1
25.05.24	Shinnik - Arsenal Tula	1:0
17.09.23	Arsenal Tula - Shinnik	2:0
21.05.23	Arsenal Tula - Shinnik	0:1

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