Match Info

FNL - Round 1

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl)

Referee: Ziyakov R. (Rus)


	Shinnik		Sochi

	1	X	2
	3.29	3.50	2.24
	3.20	3.45	2.18
	3.46	3.29	2.10	Watch
	3.10	3.05	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↓ (4.46)	3.32 ↓ (3.52)	2.16 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shinnik
28.6%

Draw
28.1%

Sochi
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

27.1%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shinnik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shinnik's performance.

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sochi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Shinnik - Sochi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Mitrov T. (G) 27. Chernyi A. 23. Chistyakov N. 50. Golubev A. 10. Gongapshev A. 62. Karpov V. 2. Kosogorov A. 64. Lanin O. 88. Mironov D. 11. Porokhov I. 15. Samoylov D. (C)	35. Degtev A. (G) 29. Ezhov R. 9. Fedorov Z. 8. Ignatov M. 6. Kuzmin M. 4. Litvinov V. 28. Magal R. 17. Makarchuk A. 5. Osipov A. 3. Soldatenkov A. 27. Zaika K. (C)
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 24. Azyavin I. 49. Karaev M. 53. Kotin N. 33. Lavrenkov A. 20. Martovoy D. . Pushkarev D. 54. Shmakov I. . Valiakhmetov E. 95. Vambolt D. (G)	59. Bart R. 37. Chirkov M. 88. Kalinin I. 18. Kaynov M. 11. Meleshin P. 66. Metsiev A. 97. Pasevich R. 85. Silev D. (G)
Coaches
Boyarintsev D.	Osinkin I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Porokhov I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 2 - 0, Karpov V. ⚽,
56', 2 - 1, Osipov A. ⚽,
60', 2 - 2, Ezhov R. ⚽,
61', Samoylov D. ↓, Martovoy D. ↑,
61', Gongapshev A. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
70', Porokhov I. ↓, Pushkarev D. ↑,
70', Mironov D. ↓, Azyavin I. ↑,
74', Magal R. ↓, Kalinin I. ↑,
74', Ezhov R. ↓, Pasevich R. ↑,
74', Fedorov Z. ↓, Meleshin P. ↑,
77', Lanin O. ↓, Kotin N. ↑,
79', Soldatenkov A. 🟨,
81', Azyavin I. 🟨,
89', Kalinin I. 🟨,
89', Martovoy D. 🟨,
90+5', Kuzmin M. ↓, Kaynov M. ↑,

Preview

Shinnik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sochi is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Shinnik won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sochi	12	7	2	3	21:14	7	23
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	3	7	2	15:13	2	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Club Friendly
30.06.26	CSKA Moscow - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
Russian FNL
16.05.26	Chelyabinsk - Shinnik	2:2 ✺
11.05.26	Shinnik - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
04.05.26	Ural - Shinnik	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Shinnik - SKA Khabarovsk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.8 TTTWW
- FC Sochi
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Sochi - Torpedo Moscow	0:3 ✺
30.06.26	Sochi - SKA Khabarovsk	4:2 ✺
26.06.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	3:3 ✺
Russian Premier League
17.05.26	Sochi - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Zenit - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
23.03.25	Sochi - Shinnik	1:2
04.08.24	Shinnik - Sochi	0:2
Russian Cup
25.09.19	Shinnik - Sochi	1:0 penalties
Russian FNL
19.05.19	Sochi - Shinnik	0:0
28.10.18	Shinnik - Sochi	1:1

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