Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 14

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Lemon Gas Stadium (Hiratsuka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Shonan Bellmare		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.08	3.58	3.44
	1.99	3.67	3.41	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.4
	1.89	3.44	3.59	Watch
	1.8	3.65	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.8)	3.51 ↓ (3.65)	3.52 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shonan Bellmare
47.6%

Draw
26.2%

Tochigi City
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

25.4%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.5%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shonan Bellmare, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Shonan Bellmare - Tochigi City Predictions

Users Predictions: Shonan Bellmare will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kamifukumoto N. (G) 13. Shimoguchi W. 8. Ono K. 3. Hakamata Y. 86. Kase N. 7. Onose K. 6. Takeda S. 15. Fujii T. 28. Ota S. 18. Ikeda M. 29. Watanabe K.	16. Kodama J. (G) 5. Okui R. 42. Jonjic M. 28. Konishi K. 88. Masukake Y. 20. Pedro Augusto 7. Mori T. 24. Nishiya K. 19. Karlsson D.M. 8. Yamashita K. 77. Tanaka P.
Substitutes
16. Arthur Feitoza 20. Ishibashi S. 77. Ishii H. 22. Minoda K. 55. Okaniwa S. 31. Sanada K. (G) 14. Takahashi N. 34. Yamada H. 30. Yamaguchi G.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 17. Chinen T. 99. Hiraoka M. 33. Inui T. 6. Kato Jo 18. Kato M. 32. Koike Y. 9. Suzuki M. 23. Yoshida A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Kase N. ⚽, Ota S. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Mori T. ⚽, Masukake Y. (A),
45', 1 - 2, Nishiya K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ota S. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
58', Tanaka P. ↓, Koike Y. ↑,
64', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
64', Fujii T. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,
70', Okui R. ↓, Inui T. ↑,
70', Yamashita K. ↓, Hiraoka M. ↑,
72', Takeda S. ↓, Arthur Feitoza ↑,
76', Hiraoka M. 🟨,
82', Shimoguchi W. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
82', Watanabe K. ↓, Ishii H. ↑,
83', Karlsson D.M. ↓, Suzuki M. ↑,
84', Mori T. ↓, Kato M. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Shonan Bellmare is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tochigi City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Shonan Bellmare is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Shonan Bellmare will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shonan Bellmare won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J2 J3 League
29.04.26	Tochigi - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Sagamihara - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 penalties ✺
18.04.26	Shonan Bellmare - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Blaublitz Akita - Shonan Bellmare	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Shonan Bellmare - Tochigi	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWW
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J2 J3 League
29.04.26	Sagamihara - Tochigi City	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Tochigi City - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Vegalta Sendai - Tochigi City	5:0 ✺
12.04.26	Tochigi City - Vanraure Hachinohe	2:4 ✺
04.04.26	Tochigi City - Sagamihara	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
28.02.26	Tochigi City - Shonan Bellmare	1:3

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