Match Info

SWEDEN: ALLSVENSKAN - ROUND 23

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Studenternas IP (Uppsala)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Sirius		Varbergs BoIS

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	6.5	Watch
	1.44	5	7	Watch
	1.44	5.14	6.93
	1.36	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.95	6.4	Watch
	1.42	5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.49)	4.95 ↑ (4.46)	6.62 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sirius
66.6%

Draw
19.1%

Varbergs BoIS
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

21%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

16.9%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sirius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Varbergs BoIS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sirius than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sirius that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varbergs BoIS than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varbergs BoIS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Sirius - Varbergs BoIS Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sirius will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Varberg will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sirius: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitov Nilsson D. (G) 13. Voelkerling J. 4. Castegren H. 5. Carlsson T. 21. Widgren D. 8. Stensson D. (C) 6. de Kamps J. 19. Heier M. 7. Matthews T. 20. Persson J. 9. Abou Ali W.	1. Olsson D. (G) 45. Sainte M. 40. Dahlstrom N. 3. Zackrisson H. 38. Sverrisson O. 21. Karlsson V. 39. El Ouatki Y. 6. Sisse F. 7. Tranberg R. (C) 11. Mucolli A. 17. Borchers M.
Substitutes
22. Alsanati A. 14. Bjarnason A. 32. Ibrahim H. 31. Jeng M. 25. Majchrowicz F. (G) 12. Omarsson O. 27. Ozkan E. 16. Sjogrell H. 18. Vikman A.	24. Alfonsi D. 27. Andersson M. 31. Dryselius V. (G) 22. Frigell Jansson L. 19. Hoven K. 9. Kurochkin A. 16. Maric A. 12. Ronnberg V. 20. Silverholt O.
Coaches
Mattiasson C.	Skogman M.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sirius won 2.

Recent matches Sirius is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Varberg is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Sirius is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Sirius won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 20-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Sirius won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IK Sirius
Swedish Allsvenskan
02.09.23	Halmstad - Sirius	2:1 ✺
28.08.23	Sirius - Malmö	1:3 ✺
Svenska Cupen
24.08.23	Österåker United - Sirius	0:6 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
20.08.23	Häcken - Sirius	3:2 ✺
13.08.23	Sirius - Kalmar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLW
- Varbergs BoIS
Swedish Allsvenskan
03.09.23	Varbergs BoIS - Brommapojkarna	4:3 ✺
28.08.23	AIK - Varbergs BoIS	3:0 ✺
19.08.23	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	0:3 ✺
13.08.23	Häcken - Varbergs BoIS	2:0 ✺
07.08.23	Varbergs BoIS - Mjällby	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
17.04.23	Varbergs BoIS - Sirius	1:1
06.11.22	Sirius - Varbergs BoIS	2:3
08.05.22	Varbergs BoIS - Sirius	0:2
16.10.21	Sirius - Varbergs BoIS	2:1
09.08.21	Varbergs BoIS - Sirius	0:0
29.08.20	Varbergs BoIS - Sirius	2:0
10.08.20	Sirius - Varbergs BoIS	3:3

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