Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 21

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Yunost Stadium (Smorgon)

Referee: Naumov E. (Blr)


	Smorgon		Naftan

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	2.95
	2.27	3.2	3.08
	2.05	3.34	3.78	Watch
	2.5	3.15	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.36)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	3.13 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smorgon
41.4%

Draw
29%

Naftan
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

28.8%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

28.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Naftan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naftan than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Smorgon - Naftan Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Smorgon will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Smorgon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Smorgon (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Smorgon (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Smorgon (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Vasilyuchek V. (G) 3. Intsoen C. (C) 7. Levkovets A. 15. Babich E. 5. Firsov A. 8. Maslovskiy V. 6. Doumbia S. 20. Tonkevich V. 33. Fazylov A. 2. Bamba M. 23. Stankevich A.	13. Kharitonovich A. (G) 3. Kostomarov N. 10. Protasov Y. 11. Pranovich I. 5. Lebedev A. 23. Kingu M. 7. Kolyadko M. (C) 31. Roziev R. 66. Camara Y. 88. Drabatovich A. 52. Kress E.
Substitutes
18. Aliyu H. S. 19. Azarko M. (G) 25. Bamba L. 77. Bogdanovich I. 9. Chebotar V. 4. Diallo M. 55. Dubovik T. 17. Dukso M. 27. Tishko A. 78. Yablonskiy M.	1. Denisenko A. (G) 8. Ermakovich K. 99. Grudko I. 19. Kabyshev V. 17. Kopytich A. 44. Sannikov A. 21. Sidor I. 4. Susha A. 12. Zhvirblya A.
Coaches
Dorokhovich S.	Kriushenko I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Stankevich A. ↓, Dukso M. ↑,
11', 1 - 0, Intsoen C. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Protasov Y. ⚽, Kingu M. (A),
44', Doumbia S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Kingu M. 🟨,
56', Camara Y. 🟨,
61', Kolyadko M. ↓, Susha A. ↑,
61', Camara Y. ↓, Rakhimov A. ↑,
66', Dukso M. ↓, Yablonskiy M. ↑,
66', Kostomarov N. ↓, Sannikov A. ↑,
76', Maslovskiy V. ↓, Aliyu H. S. ↑,
76', Doumbia S. ↓, Tishko A. ↑,
85', Aliyu H. S. 🟨,
88', Pranovich I. ↓, Grudko I. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Pershaya Liga and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 2.

Recent performances by Smorgon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Naftan has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Smorgon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Smorgon has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Smorgon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
30.08.25	Smorgon - ML Vitebsk	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Smorgon - Dinamo Brest	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Smorgon - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Smorgon - Slutsk	0:0 ✺
Belarusian Cup
13.07.25	Uni X Labs Minsk - Smorgon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 LWTTW
- Naftan Novopolotsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
29.08.25	Naftan - Isloch Minsk	2:2 ✺
22.08.25	ML Vitebsk - Naftan	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Naftan - Vitebsk	3:0 ✺
10.08.25	Dinamo Brest - Naftan	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Naftan - Minsk	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
26.04.25	Naftan - Smorgon	3:1
24.08.24	Smorgon - Naftan	1:0
14.04.24	Naftan - Smorgon	1:1
24.09.23	Naftan - Smorgon	2:2
07.05.23	Smorgon - Naftan	1:0
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
04.11.20	Smorgon - Naftan	1:0
24.05.20	Naftan - Smorgon	0:1

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