Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 24 November 2025, Monday


	Sofapaka		Ulinzi Stars

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.68	3.5
	2.14	2.91	3.54	Watch
	2.27	2.63	3.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.14)	2.74 ↓ (2.91)	3.54 (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sofapaka
41.2%

Draw
33.1%

Ulinzi Stars
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

31.4%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

30.2%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ulinzi Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 1 - 2, ⚽,
74', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 2.

Recent performances by Sofapaka have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ulinzi Stars's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sofapaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sofapaka could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sofapaka won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
15.11.25	Bandari - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
10.11.25	Sofapaka - Posta Rangers	2:0 ✺
05.11.25	Police FC - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Nairobi United - Sofapaka	0:3 ✺
28.10.25	Sofapaka - Mara Sugar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLWT
- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
19.11.25	APS Bomet - Ulinzi Stars	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Ulinzi Stars - Shabana	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Ulinzi Stars - Bidco United	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Ulinzi Stars	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
04.04.25	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	0:1
07.12.24	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	4:1
13.04.24	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
24.09.23	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	1:0
Kenyan FKF Cup
29.04.23	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 penalties
Kenyan Premier League
13.04.23	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	2:2
17.12.22	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	1:1

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