Match Info

Paraibano - Round 5

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Sousa		Esporte de Patos

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.7	5.75
	1.47	3.8	5.9
	1.45	3.87	6.36
	1.46	4	6.31
	1.5	3.5	6.5
	1.44	3.82	6.89
	1.46	3.8	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.4)	3.78 ↓ (3.97)	6.32 ↓ (7.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
61.8%

Draw
23.9%

Esporte de Patos
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

22.8%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

21.8%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Esporte de Patos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sousa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esporte de Patos than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Sousa - Esporte de Patos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moises (G) 7. Aslen Kevin 8. Diego Viana 6. Gilmar 5. Hebert 2. Iranilson 11. Luis Henrique 4. Marcelo 21. Mateuzinho 3. Yan 9. Yan Philippe	1. Luiz Miller (G) 4. Artur Potiguar (C) 17. Capixaba 10. Claudinho 9. Edson Kapa 8. Gustavo Henrique 5. Joao Marcelo 2. Lazaro 11. Mano Walter 7. Matheus Guara 6. Matheus Lima
Substitutes
13. Abraao 20. Crystian 17. Estevan 28. Gabriel Souza (G) 12. Joao Vitor (G) 10. Lucas Zanatelli 19. Matheus Bambu 18. Natalicio 15. Nathan 16. Neto Lisboa 14. Pedro Costa 25. Veraldo	12. Bruno (G) 13. Carlinhos 3. Eduardo Matuto 19. Gabigol 15. Gabriel Alemao 20. Guilherme 16. Juniel 14. Marcelo Barbosa 21. Marquinhos 18. Mikael 23. Rafael

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Claudinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yan Philippe ↓, Matheus Bambu ↑,
46', Mateuzinho ↓, Lucas Zanatelli ↑,
59', Edson Kapa ↓, Gabigol ↑,
61', Diego Viana ↓, Natalicio ↑,
65', Matheus Lima ↓, Eduardo Matuto ↑,
68', Aslen Kevin ↓, Crystian ↑,
75', Claudinho 🟨,
79', Claudinho ↓, Juniel ↑,
80', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
81', Hebert ↓, Veraldo ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 8).

Sousa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Esporte de Patos's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Esporte de Patos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sousa is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sousa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
28.01.26	Sousa - Treze	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Serra Branca - Sousa	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Sousa - Confiança PB	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Pombal - Sousa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTLWW
- Esporte Clube de Patos
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
29.01.26	Esporte de Patos - Nacional de Patos	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Esporte de Patos - Serra Branca	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos - Esporte de Patos	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Botafogo PB - Esporte de Patos	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.12.25	Potiguar - Esporte de Patos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
19.01.25	Esporte de Patos - Sousa	1:3
10.03.19	Esporte de Patos - Sousa	2:1
26.01.19	Sousa - Esporte de Patos	2:0

Sousa - Esporte de Patos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide