Match Info
Serie D - Round 4Date: 11 May 2025, SundayLocation: Estádio Antonio Mariz (Sousa)
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Sousa |
|
Ferroviário Fortaleza |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.3 |
2.75 |
3.1 |
|
 |
2.36 |
2.77 |
3 |
|
 |
2.4 |
2.91 |
3.06 |
|
 |
2.4 |
2.86 |
3.02 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(2.13) |
2.82 ↓
(3.06) |
3.05 ↓
(3.31) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Sousa
38.2% | Draw
32% | Ferroviário Fortaleza
29.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-2.4%)Sousa - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Diego Ceara ⚽,
- 34', 2 - 0, Diego Ceara ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 73', 3 - 0, Diego Ceara ⚽,
- 80', 4 - 0, Marcelo ⚽,
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).Sousa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).Ferroviário is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Sousa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Sousa has had a series of away games. Sousa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sousa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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