Match Info

Asian Games - Play Offs - Final

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)


	South Korea U23		Japan U23

	1	X	2
	2.50	2.90	2.70
	2.55	2.75	2.70
	2.38	2.88	2.85
	2.55	3.07	3.06
	2.39	3.22	2.94	Watch
	2.40	3.00	3.00
	2.45	3.26	2.99
	2.45	2.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.27)	2.99 ↓ (3.46)	2.87 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Korea U23
37.3%

Draw
30.7%

Japan U23
32%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42%

27.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Korea U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Japan U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

South Korea U23 - Japan U23 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim J. (G) Suwon Bluewings 22. Bae Hyun-Seo Gyeongnam 10. Bae Jun-Ho Stoke City 16. Choi Seok-Hyun Ulsan Hyundai 7. Eom Ji-Sung Swansea 5. Kim Ji-Soo Brentford 6. Lee Gi-Hyuk (C) Gangwon 8. Lee Seung-Won Gangwon 9. Lee Young-Jun Grasshoppers 23. Shin Min-Ha Gangwon 17. Yang Min-Hyuk Westerlo	23. Araki R. (G) Gamba Osaka 5. Ichihara R. (C) AZ Alkmaar 10. Ishii H. Shonan Bellmare 17. Nakajima Y. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 19. Nwadike B. Aalborg 22. Okabe H. Toyo University 14. Ozeki Y. Kawasaki Frontale 21. Sato M. Albirex Niigata 18. Shimamoto Y. Shimizu S-Pulse 2. Umeki R. Imabari 11. Yokoyama Y. Cerezo Osaka
Substitutes
3. Choi Woo-Jin Jeonbuk 15. Hwang Do-Yun Seoul 2. Kang Min-Jun Pohang 13. Kang Sang-Yoon Jeonbuk 18. Kim M. Genk 12. Kim Min-seung (G) Paju Frontier 14. Lee Hyun-ju Arouca 21. Lee Seung-Hwan (G) Cheongju 20. Park Kyung-sub Incheon 4. Park Seong-hun Seoul 19. Park Seung-soo Newcastle Utd 11. Yang Hyun-Jun Celtic	16. Fukunaga Y. Kyoto Sangyo 13. Furuya S. Tokyo International University 20. Ishibashi S. Shonan Bellmare 7. Ishiwatari N. St. Truiden 12. Kobayashi M. (G) Matsumoto Yamaga 3. Kosugi K. Eintracht Frankfurt 9. Michiwaki Y. Iwaki 15. Mori S. Okayama 6. Nagano S. FC Tokyo 1. Pisano A. (G) Nagoya Grampus 4. Tsuchiya K. Fukushima United 8. Yasuda K. V-Varen Nagasaki

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Nwadike B. ↓, Fukunaga Y. ↑,
29', Lee Gi-Hyuk 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Lee Gi-Hyuk ↓, Hwang Do-Yun ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Eom Ji-Sung ⚽,
66', Yang Min-Hyuk ↓, Kang Sang-Yoon ↑,
74', Fukunaga Y. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
74', Nakajima Y. ↓, Ishiwatari N. ↑,
81', Ishiwatari N. 🟨,
81', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
81', Ishii H. ↓, Yasuda K. ↑,
88', Bae Jun-Ho 🟨,
90', Lee Young-Jun ↓, Kim M. ↑,
90', Bae Jun-Ho ↓, Park Seung-soo ↑,
90+1', Bae Hyun-Seo 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Korea U23 won 3.

Japan U23 is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

South Korea U23 could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with South Korea U23 holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, South Korea U23 has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:9 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Korea U23
Asian Games Football
30.09.26	South Korea U23 - China U23	2:1 ✺
25.09.26	South Korea U23 - Vietnam U23	4:0 ✺
22.09.26	South Korea U23 - Saudi Arabia U23	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Qatar U23 - South Korea U23	1:4 ✺
Friendly
06.06.26	Thailand U23 - South Korea U23	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW
- Japan U23
Asian Games Football
30.09.26	Uzbekistan U23 - Japan U23	1:2 penalties ✺
26.09.26	Japan U23 - North Korea U23	1:0 ✺
23.09.26	Japan U23 - Thailand U23	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Kyrgyzstan U23 - Japan U23	0:7 ✺
16.09.26	Japan U23 - Hong Kong U23	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Asian Cup U23
20.01.26	Japan U23 - South Korea U23	1:0
22.04.24	Japan U23 - South Korea U23	0:1
Asian Games Football
07.10.23	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:1
AFC Asian Cup U23
12.06.22	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	0:3
Asian Games Football
01.09.18	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:1 ET
AFC Asian Cup U23
30.01.16	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:3
Asian Games Football
28.09.14	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	1:0

South Korea U23 - Japan U23: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide