Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday


	Spalding United		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.6	2.5
	2.45	3.4	2.37
	2.45	3.5	2.48
	2.4	3.44	2.54
	2.51	3.44	2.5	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (3.34)	3.5 ↓ (3.66)	2.43 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Spalding United
36.7%

Draw
26%

Alfreton Town
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

25%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

24%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spalding United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spalding United's performance.

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alfreton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spalding United than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spalding United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alfreton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Spalding United - Alfreton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

(3 - 0)

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Spalding has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alfreton's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Spalding may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Spalding has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Spalding won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Spalding won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spalding United
English Southern League Central Division
09.09.25	Kettering Town - Spalding United	2:4 ✺
06.09.25	Stratford Town - Spalding United	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Stamford - Spalding United	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Stourbridge - Spalding United	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Bromsgrove Sporting - Spalding United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWWW
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
06.09.25	Alfreton Town - King`s Lynn Town	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Oxford City - Alfreton Town	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Alfreton Town - Marine	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Macclesfield Town - Alfreton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
17.09.24	Alfreton Town - Spalding United	2:1 penalties
14.09.24	Spalding United - Alfreton Town	0:0

Upcoming Matches