Match Info

National League North - Round 7

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: RAW Charging Stadium (Oxford)


	Oxford City		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3
	2.3	3.2	2.6
	2.3	3.2	2.88
	2.34	3.2	2.99
	1.54	3.75	6.28	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.7
	2.35	3.16	2.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.56)	3.24 ↑ (3.17)	3.34 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford City
42.6%

Draw
29.1%

Alfreton Town
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.9%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

28.1%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford City's performance.

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alfreton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alfreton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Oxford City - Alfreton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Oxford City will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Alfreton will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford City (votes: 1 - 50%). Alfreton (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Westendorf I. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Johnson D. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 3 - 0, Campton-Sturridge D. ⚽,
71', 4 - 0, Parker J. (Pen),
90+4', 5 - 0, Scott T. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 20).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Oxford City won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Oxford City won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.29%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford City
English National League North
30.08.25	Oxford City - Radcliffe	1:5 ✺
25.08.25	Chester - Oxford City	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Oxford City - Spennymoor Town	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Oxford City	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Oxford City - Macclesfield Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLLTW
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
30.08.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Alfreton Town - Marine	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Macclesfield Town - Alfreton Town	1:1 ✺
19.08.25	Alfreton Town - South Shields	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Alfreton Town - Darlington	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
15.03.25	Alfreton Town - Oxford City	1:1
19.11.24	Oxford City - Alfreton Town	1:2

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