Match Info

III Liga - Group III - Round 32

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Sparta Katowice		Skra Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.35	3.1
	2.08	3.47	3.09	Watch
	2.05	3.42	3.11	Watch
	2.39	3.5	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.39)	3.44 ↓ (3.5)	2.91 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Katowice
42.5%

Draw
26.4%

Skra Częstochowa
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

25.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sparta Katowice's performance.

Skra Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Skra Częstochowa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Katowice than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sparta Katowice that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Skra Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Skra Częstochowa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sparta Katowice - Skra Częstochowa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Sobolewski P. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 4).

Sparta Katowice is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Skra Częstochowa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Skra Częstochowa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sparta Katowice won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	BKS Sparta Katowice	11	7	3	1	19:7	12	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Katowice
Polish Division 3 - Group III
13.05.26	Starowice Dolne - Sparta Katowice	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Sparta Katowice - Słowianin Wolibórz	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Pniówek Pawłowice - Sparta Katowice	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Lechia Zielona Góra - Sparta Katowice	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Sparta Katowice - Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWTW
- KS Skra Częstochowa
Polish Division 3 - Group III
13.05.26	Skra Częstochowa - Ślęza Wrocław	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Skra Częstochowa - Górnik 2 Zabrze	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Polonia Nysa - Skra Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Skra Częstochowa - Starowice Dolne	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Skra Częstochowa - Polkowice	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group III
31.10.25	Skra Częstochowa - Sparta Katowice	1:2

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