Match Info

BULGARIA: Parva liga - Round 16

Date: 22 November 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Varna)

Referee: Davidov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra


	Spartak Varna		Hebar Pazardzhik

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7	Watch
	1.47	3.9	6.5
	1.48	3.9	6.8
	1.47	4.01	7.72
	1.5	3.97	6.87	Watch
	1.5	3.6	6
	1.48	4.05	6.99	Watch
	1.48	3.9	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.53)	3.9 ↑ (3.75)	6.84 ↑ (6.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartak Varna
62.6%

Draw
23.8%

Hebar Pazardzhik
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

24.9%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

24.4%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartak Varna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Hebar Pazardzhik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Varna than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hebar Pazardzhik than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Spartak Varna - Hebar Pazardzhik Predictions

Users Predictions: Spartak Varna will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
76. Velichkov M. (G) 14. Ivey R. 3. Juric-Petrasilo M. 6. Tsvetkov A. 44. Granchov A. (C) 21. Konate P. 7. Berna 8. Lesniak F. 39. Vutov A. 16. Ilic C. 29. Ahmedov A.	1. Debarliev P. (C) 18. Terziev R. 20. Brtan M. 23. Pehlivanov K. 44. Nikolaev N. 11. Vukovic D. 19. Staykov G. 21. Penchev B. 7. Zbun O. 9. Krastev K. 10. Kabov A.
Substitutes
88. Dimitrov R. 99. Halachev D. 18. Ivanov D. 77. Marinov L. 17. Marinov T. 11. Mitev V. 9. Rivollier F. 89. Videnov N. (G) 22. Yanchev A.	29. Diamanka C. 24. El Fattahi E. 88. Gamakov M. 77. Hamdiev O. 55. Mihaylov M. 97. Rosa M. (G) 98. Tartov G. 84. Tisovski S. 4. Velchev K.
Coaches
Kirov N.	Akrapovic B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Ahmedov A. ⚽, Konate P. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Vutov A. ⚽,
24', Brtan M. 🟨,
42', Zbun O. ↓, Diamanka C. ↑,
42', Krastev K. ↓, Gamakov M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 3 - 0, Ahmedov A. ⚽, Ivey R. (A),
63', Penchev B. 🟨,
66', 4 - 0, Ahmedov A. (Pen),
69', Vutov A. ↓, Dimitrov R. ↑,
70', Konate P. ↓, Mitev V. ↑,
74', Gamakov M. 🟨,
74', Vukovic D. ↓, Tartov G. ↑,
76', Berna ↓, Ivanov D. ↑,
76', Ahmedov A. ↓, Rivollier F. ↑,
81', Brtan M. ↓, Velchev K. ↑,
81', Kabov A. ↓, El Fattahi E. ↑,
85', Juric-Petrasilo M. ↓, Marinov T. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Conference League Group: ) and 16 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spartak Varna won 2.

Recent matches Spartak Varna is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hebar is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Spartak Varna is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Spartak Varna won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6:9 (average 0.8:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Spartak Varna won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:4 (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spartak Varna
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.11.24	Spartak Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:3 ✺
02.11.24	Krumovgrad - Spartak Varna	0:1 ✺
23.10.24	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:0 ✺
18.10.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Spartak Varna	3:0 ✺
06.10.24	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWLW
- Hebar Pazardzhik
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.11.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:1 ✺
03.11.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:0 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
30.10.24	Dunav Ruse - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 penalties ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
26.10.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	0:0 ✺
20.10.24	Cherno More Varna - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
22.07.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Spartak Varna	0:2
22.05.23	Spartak Varna - Hebar Pazardzhik	2:1
20.02.23	Hebar Pazardzhik - Spartak Varna	0:0
05.08.22	Spartak Varna - Hebar Pazardzhik	0:1
Bulgarian Vtora Liga
06.04.22	Hebar Pazardzhik - Spartak Varna	2:1
26.09.21	Spartak Varna - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0
16.02.20	Hebar Pazardzhik - Spartak Varna	3:0

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