Match Info

efbet League - Round 10

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Varna)

Referee: Trenchev S. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra


	Spartak Varna		Lokomotiv Sofia

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.4	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.40	2.45
	2.52	3.35	2.45
	2.68	3.6	2.6
	2.63	3.48	2.53	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.5
	2.6	3.35	2.48	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.58)	3.42 ↑ (3.28)	2.5 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartak Varna
35.8%

Draw
27.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.7%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartak Varna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Lokomotiv Sofia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Varna than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Sofia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Iliev P. (G) 76. Valverde D. 45. Tshitoku J. 44. Granchov A. (C) 2. Ivanov B. 19. Major S. 17. Marinov T. 11. Hanne B. 82. Silva T. 77. Ivanov A. 29. Ahmedov A.	99. Velichkov M. (G) 6. Eiro 91. Bidounga R. 3. Kostov K. 14. Lyaskov A. 20. Kostadinov D. 11. Taoui A. 31. Stanoev K. (C) 5. Dost E. 7. Delev S. 29. Aralica A.
Substitutes
90. Chidera O. M. 9. Chunchukov T. 80. Gomes A. 10. Jota Lopes 5. Krastev D. 20. Lozev D. 72. Oliveira V. 16. Silva E. 6. Sousa R. 41. Tindano Z. 1. Victor P. (G)	77. Caue Caruzo 21. Chachev K. 22. Daskalov R. 44. Katsarov B. 24. Lyubenov A. (G) 16. Medfai M. 26. Miloshev K. 42. Neychev N. 17. Papazov M. 71. Penev N. 8. Yordanov I.
Coaches
Petrov Y.	Penev L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Aralica A. 🟨,
45+1', Dost E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Granchov A. (Own goal),
61', Granchov A. 🟨,
62', Granchov A. ↓, Tindano Z. ↑,
62', Silva T. ↓, Jota Lopes ↑,
62', Ahmedov A. ↓, Chidera O. M. ↑,
69', Marinov T. 🟨,
76', Ivanov B. ↓, Silva E. ↑,
76', Dost E. ↓, Chachev K. ↑,
83', Medfai M. 🟨,
86', Kostadinov D. 🟨,
86', Kostadinov D. ↓, Neychev N. ↑,
90+2', Bidounga R. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', Delev S. ↓, Miloshev K. ↑,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 8th in the Promotion ~ efbet League (Conference League Group: ) and 14th in the efbet League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spartak Varna won 2.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Lokomotiv Sofia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Varna has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:11 (averaging 1.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Spartak Varna against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 10:6 goals (averaging 2:1.2 per game).

Outrights of Bulgarian Parva Liga for now

Spartak Varna: 0.16% Lok. Sofia: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10:15	-5	10
11	Lok. Sofia	10	1	4	5	11:18	-7	7

Last Results with these Odds

Lokomotiv Sofia - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.67%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spartak Varna
Bulgarian Parva Liga
13.09.26	Slavia Sofia - Spartak Varna	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Spartak Varna - CSKA Sofia	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Spartak Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Levski Sofia - Spartak Varna	6:0 ✺
17.08.26	Spartak Varna - Septemvri Sofia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TTTLL
- Lokomotiv Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
16.09.26	Lokomotiv Sofia - CSKA Sofia	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Cherno More Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Dunav Ruse - Lokomotiv Sofia	2:2 ✺
17.08.26	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Sofia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
22.05.26	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	3:0
13.02.26	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	2:2
22.08.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Spartak Varna	0:0
28.03.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Spartak Varna	2:1
06.10.24	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	3:2
Bulgarian Cup
18.11.23	Lokomotiv Sofia - Spartak Varna	0:1 penalties
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.03.23	Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia	1:2

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