Match Info

Copa de la Liga - Round 3

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alberto Gallardo (Lima)


	Sporting Cristal		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.20	6.25
	1.35	4.95	7.1
	1.34	4.79	6.93
	1.60	3.45	5.96	Watch
	1.32	4.6	6.5
	1.32	4.9	7.13	Watch
	1.33	4.7	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.59)	4.51 ↑ (3.84)	6.64 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
66.1%

Draw
20.2%

Unión Comercio
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

23.4%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.4%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Cristal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Cristal's performance.

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Comercio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Cristal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Comercio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Unión Comercio (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Cristal will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Comercio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Tavara M. ⚽,
76', 2 - 0, Avila I. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Cristal won 5.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Unión Comercio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting Cristal has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sporting Cristal is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting Cristal won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 53:19. (average 2.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting Cristal won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:6. (average 2.1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
21.06.26	Estudiantil CNI - Sporting Cristal	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Comerciantes Belén - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
31.05.26	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.26	Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.26	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLLW
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
20.06.26	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 2
31.05.26	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Universidad San Martín - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
17.05.26	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Llacuabamba	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Carlos A. Mannucci - Unión Comercio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
27.10.24	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	0:12
18.05.24	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	5:1
02.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	3:0
13.05.23	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	1:6
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
04.07.21	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	2:0
Peruvian Liga 1
25.08.19	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	2:1
09.03.19	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	1:0

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