Match Info

Copa de la Liga - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Alberto Gallardo (Lima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	America TV GO, America TV


	Sporting Cristal		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.40	5.90
	1.47	4.10	5.00
	1.52	3.9	6.3	Watch
	1.45	3.90	4.95
	1.60	4.37	4.68	Watch
	1.47	4.00	5.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.51)	4.11 ↑ (3.98)	5.37 ↓ (5.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
61%

Draw
22.1%

ADT Tarma
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.1%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

22.3%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Sporting Cristal have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Bautista C. (G) 96. Abram L. 6. Alvarez Wallace A. 23. Castro M. 32. Diaz L. 7. Gonzalez S. 22. Hoyos M. 16. Iberico L. 5. Lutiger R. 8. Sosa L. 25. Tavara M.	33. Solis C. (G) 32. Bauman J. 44. Benincasa H. 26. Garcilazo J. 27. Hidalgo A. 77. Lucumi J. 18. Mazzo A. 23. Narvaez J. 31. Navarro J. 16. Perez L. 3. Rugel L.
Substitutes
11. Avila I. 29. Barcos H. 21. Cabellos C. 77. Cuesta J. 1. Enriquez D. (G) 27. Gabriel 18. Gonzalez J. 40. Moretti J. 4. Villacorta A.	35. Mori E. (G) 59. Nunez O. 6. Ojeda A. 24. Peralta S. 99. Pereyra J. 98. Ramos A. 2. Reyes J. 50. Riveros O. 22. Rodriguez A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', Narvaez J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Hoyos M. ⚽,
28', Tavara M. 🟨,
36', Rugel L. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Gonzalez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Hoyos M. ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
46', Tavara M. ↓, Cabellos C. ↑,
61', Castro M. ↓, Cristiano ↑,
62', 3 - 0, Sosa L. ⚽,
66', Bauman J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
66', Mazzo A. ↓, Peralta S. ↑,
66', Alvarez Wallace A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
72', 4 - 0, Cabellos C. ⚽,
73', Iberico L. ↓, Gabriel ↑,
76', Perez L. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
76', Garcilazo J. ↓, Riveros O. ↑,
80', Rugel L. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
86', 5 - 0, Gonzalez S. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Cristal won 3.

Sporting Cristal has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

ADT is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sporting Cristal could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Sporting Cristal for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for Sporting Cristal in today's match, at odds of 1.48.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:14 (averaging 2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sporting Cristal against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 14:6 goals (averaging 2.8:1.2 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
27.09.26	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.09.26	Sporting Cristal - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Moquegua - Sporting Cristal	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Sporting Cristal - Los Chankas	5:0 ✺
30.08.26	Sport Boys - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWL
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
27.09.26	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.09.26	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	ADT Tarma - Sport Huancayo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Copa de la Liga
27.09.26	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	0:1
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.26	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	2:1
04.10.25	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	3:2
17.05.25	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	2:1
12.07.24	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	3:1
27.01.24	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	6:2
06.08.23	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	1:1

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