Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cienciano		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4
	1.75	3.85	4.15	Watch
	1.8	4.18	4
	1.68	4.02	4.55	Watch
	1.75	3.8	3.8
	1.79	4.01	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.89)	3.94 ↑ (3.38)	4.05 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
53.4%

Draw
23.6%

Sporting Cristal
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.6%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

26.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Sporting Cristal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Cienciano (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cienciano will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Falcon G. (G) 13. Nunez C. 3. Becerra K. 27. Yovera A. 7. Souza Espana C. 39. Caparo H. 8. Aguirre G. 16. Martinich M. 10. Hohberg A. 11. Bandiera N. 21. Garces C. (C)	1. Enriquez D. (G) 8. Sosa L. 5. Lutiger R. 96. Abram L. 90. Cristiano 27. Gabriel 19. Yotun Y. (C) 55. Cazonatti G. 23. Castro M. 16. Iberico L. 25. Tavara M.
Substitutes
5. Arias Fierro S. D. 88. Barreto G. 14. Cavero S. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 18. La Torre D. 29. Robles A. 37. Rojas A. 25. Salazar R. 19. Succar M.	11. Avila I. 33. Bautista C. (G) 14. Benavente C. 21. Cabellos C. 41. Cuenca J. 32. Diaz L. 40. Moretti J. 28. Otoya D. 26. Wisdom I.
Coaches
Melgarejo H.	Bulos I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Gabriel ⚽, Yotun Y. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Lutiger R. (Own goal),
44', Cazonatti G. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 2, Castro M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Caparo H. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
46', Martinich M. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
46', Aguirre G. ↓, Barreto G. ↑,
48', Cazonatti G. 🟨,
52', Iberico L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
61', 2 - 2, Succar M. ⚽, Garces C. (A),
65', Tavara M. ↓, Wisdom I. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Hohberg A. ⚽, Succar M. (A),
77', Gabriel ↓, Otoya D. ↑,
78', Sosa L. ↓, Cuenca J. ↑,
78', Castro M. ↓, Cabellos C. ↑,
78', Bandiera N. ↓, Arias Fierro S. D. ↑,
88', Hohberg A. ↓, Salazar R. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 1.

In recent matches, Cienciano has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sporting Cristal is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cienciano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting Cristal has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cienciano is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:38. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cienciano won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sporting Cristal	10	6	1	3	20:10	10	19
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	14:18	-4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Cienciano - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.26	Sport Huancayo - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
16.05.26	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLLW
- Sporting Cristal
Copa Libertadores
28.05.26	Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.26	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Junior Barranquilla - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
15.05.26	Cajamarca - Sporting Cristal	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
07.11.25	Sporting Cristal - Cienciano	2:1
05.07.25	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	1:1
27.07.24	Sporting Cristal - Cienciano	5:1
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	2:1
Peruvian Liga 1
09.02.24	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	2:2
22.10.23	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	1:0
01.06.23	Sporting Cristal - Cienciano	4:2

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