Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 41

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Molinón (Gijón)

Referee: Arcediano D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 5
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Indonesia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sporting de Gijón		Almería

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.7	2.05	Watch
	3.8	3.75	1.77
	3.1	3.7	2.05	Watch
	3.23	3.94	2.15
	3.56	3.88	1.95	Watch
	3	3.6	2.05
	3.14	3.62	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↓ (3.48)	3.74 ↓ (4.03)	2.01 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting de Gijón
28.4%

Draw
25%

Almería
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

23.4%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

23.3%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Sporting de Gijón - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Almería will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Almería (2.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 44. Cuenca A. 36. Rodriguez M. 24. Smith J. 14. Corredera A. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 19. Otero J. 7. Campos G. (C)	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 4. Monte N. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. (C) 11. Arribas S. 7. Morcillo J. 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
8. Bernal J. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 17. Dubasin J. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 12. Olivan B. 5. Sanchez D. 20. Vazquez K. 30. Venteo I. (G)	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 6. Horta A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 12. Leo Baptistao 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Otero J. ⚽, Corredera A. (A),
20', Chirino D. 🟨,
21', 2 - 0, Otero J. ⚽, Gelabert Pina C. (A),
34', Monte N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lopy D. ↓, Horta A. ↑,
46', Morcillo J. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
46', Monte N. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
56', Horta A. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, de la Fuente M. ⚽, Chirino D. (A),
58', Corredera A. 🟨,
61', Cuenca A. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
72', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
72', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Dubasin J. ↑,
74', Rodrigo Ely 🟨,
75', Vazquez P. 🟨,
80', Chirino D. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Vazquez P. ⚽, Corredera A. (A),
84', Corredera A. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
84', Vazquez P. ↓, Curbelo E. ↑,
85', Otero J. ↓, Bernal J. ↑,
87', Rosas G. 🟨,
89', Melamed N. 🟨,
90', Sanchez D. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting de Gijón won 0.

Sporting de Gijón has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting de Gijón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Almería is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Ferrari A. (Leg Injury) Loum M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nacho Martin (Achilles Tendon Injury) Olivan B. (Injury) Queipo D. (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Bonini F. (Red Card) Luna M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Rosas G. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sporting de Gijón won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting de Gijón won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting de Gijón - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.13%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
17.05.26	Zaragoza - Sporting de Gijón	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Córdoba - Sporting de Gijón	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting de Gijón - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
16.05.26	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Almería - Mirandés	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
20.09.25	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	2:1
22.02.25	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	1:1
31.08.24	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	1:1
25.04.22	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	1:0
02.11.21	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	0:1
30.05.21	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	0:2
04.10.20	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	0:1

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