Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 40

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Max
France	beIN Sports MAX 6
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Spain	DAZN Espana, Gol Play, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, LaLiga Hypermotion, TV Canaria
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Almería		Las Palmas

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.02	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.11	3.65	3.59
	2.15	3.13	3.65	Watch
	2	3.3	3.5
	2.11	3.48	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.09)	3.38 ↓ (3.54)	3.55 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
45.6%

Draw
27.9%

Las Palmas
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26.6%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.2%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Almería - Las Palmas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 50%). Las Palmas (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Las Palmas (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Las Palmas (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Almería will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 25%). Las Palmas (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 29. Dzodic S. 6. Horta A. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 24. de la Fuente M.	1. Horkas D. (G) 2. Marvin 4. Alex Suarez 3. Marmol M. 5. Clemente E. 18. Miyashiro T. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 16. Amatucci L. 39. Pedrola E. 10. Jese 14. Fuster M.
Substitutes
14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 22. Chirino D. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	7. Benedetti N. 49. Bravo I. 13. Caro J. (G) 8. Gil I. 26. Gonzalez I. 23. Gutierrez C. 15. Herzog J. 38. Medina I. 24. Pejino 27. Pezzolesi V. 35. Suarez A. (G) 21. Viera J.
Coaches
Rubi	Garcia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', Pedrola E. 🟨,
59', Bonini F. 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Embarba A. ⚽,
69', Marvin ↓, Herzog J. ↑,
69', Miyashiro T. ↓, Viera J. ↑,
70', Horta A. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
70', Leo Baptistao ↓, Baba I. ↑,
74', Alex Suarez ↓, Pezzolesi V. ↑,
74', Pedrola E. ↓, Pejino ↑,
75', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Clemente E. ⚽,
81', 1 - 2, Pejino ⚽, Rodriguez K. (A),
82', Dzodic S. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
82', Embarba A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
84', Luna M. 🟨,
87', Jese ↓, Bravo I. ↑,
90+9', Bonini F. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 2.

Almería is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Las Palmas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Almería is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Baba I. (Health problems) Lopy D. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Las Palmas: Loiodice E. (Ankle Injury) Ramirez S. (Injury) Recoba J. (Knee Injury) Sergio Barcia (Muscle Injury) Viera J. (Stomach Disorder)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Garcia A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Almería won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:16. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.5:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
12	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	12:13	-1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Almería - Mirandés	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Racing Santander - Almería	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWWL
- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga2
10.05.26	FC Andorra - Las Palmas	5:1 ✺
03.05.26	Las Palmas - Valladolid	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Cádiz - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Las Palmas - Leganés	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
27.09.25	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
17.03.24	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1
28.10.23	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2
Club Friendly
23.07.23	Las Palmas - Almería	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
09.01.22	Las Palmas - Almería	1:1
09.10.21	Almería - Las Palmas	1:1
14.02.21	Almería - Las Palmas	3:1

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