Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 38

Date: 1 May 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio El Molinón (Gijón)

Referee: Monescillo D. (Esp)


	Sporting de Gijón		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	7	Watch
	1.52	3.6	6.5
	1.6	3.55	6.5
	1.52	3.9	7.97
	1.5	3.94	7.3	Watch
	1.49	3.85	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.81)	3.81 ↑ (3.15)	7.08 ↑ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting de Gijón
61.9%

Draw
24.8%

Lugo
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

29.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

29%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting de Gijón's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting de Gijón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	2.7%	8.1%

Sporting de Gijón - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: Sporting de Gijón will win (33 of 37 users predict this - 89.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.18% – 99.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Sporting de Gijón has the most likely position - 17 (14.2%), project points - 53, currently - 45, a very small chance of relegated (5%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (71.23%), project points - 31, currently - 27, already of relegated.

This event has small quality 25, small importance 13, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sporting de Gijón won 2.

Recent matches Sporting de Gijón is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lugo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Sporting de Gijón is indisputable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Sporting de Gijón won 10 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 25-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting de Gijón won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
22.04.23	Cartagena - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
16.04.23	Sporting de Gijón - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
08.04.23	Ibiza - Sporting de Gijón	1:3 ✺
02.04.23	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Las Palmas - Sporting de Gijón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LTWWT
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
23.04.23	Lugo - Málaga	0:2 ✺
15.04.23	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Lugo - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
02.04.23	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
24.03.23	Cartagena - Lugo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
08.12.22	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	0:1
02.01.22	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	1:1
30.10.21	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	1:1
10.05.21	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	1:0
04.01.21	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	0:0
Club Friendly
30.08.20	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
28.06.20	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	2:0

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