Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 36

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)

Referee: De La Fuente Ramos O. (Esp)


	Real Oviedo		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.4	7	Watch
	1.58	3.25	6.25
	1.65	3.25	6.75
	1.63	3.48	7.43
	1.62	3.44	6.75	Watch
	1.62	3.4	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.81)	3.37 ↑ (3.03)	6.76 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Oviedo
58.2%

Draw
27.9%

Lugo
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

30.6%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

30.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Oviedo's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Oviedo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	37.5%	6.2%

Real Oviedo - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Oviedo will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Lugo will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oviedo: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 15 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Oviedo has the most likely position - 13 (11.86%), project points - 54, currently - 43, a very small chance of relegated (1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (76.84%), project points - 33, currently - 27, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 26, very small importance 4, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oviedo won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lugo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Oviedo is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Oviedo won 4 matches, drawn 11 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 23-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Oviedo won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga2
09.04.23	Las Palmas - Real Oviedo	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	Real Oviedo - Eibar	1:1 ✺
26.03.23	Granada - Real Oviedo	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Leganés - Real Oviedo	0:1 ✺
10.03.23	Real Oviedo - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WTLWT
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
07.04.23	Lugo - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
02.04.23	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
24.03.23	Cartagena - Lugo	2:0 ✺
19.03.23	Lugo - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
25.09.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0
19.03.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:1
15.08.21	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:2
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
15.02.21	Real Oviedo - Lugo	3:1
24.11.20	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0
23.02.20	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:0

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