Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 37

Date: 23 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Moreno A. (Esp)


	Lugo		Málaga

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3	2.15
	3.45	3.15	2.2
	3.78	3.1	2.24
	3.62	3.13	2.17	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.63)	3.1 ↑ (2.8)	2.21 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugo
27%

Draw
30.4%

Málaga
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

32.4%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

35.2%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Málaga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Lugo - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (68.72%), project points - 33, currently - 27, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Málaga has the most likely position - 19 (53.76%), project points - 45, currently - 36, a good chance of relegated (77%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 25, small importance 27, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1.

Lugo is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Málaga is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Málaga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Málaga will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
15.04.23	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Lugo - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
02.04.23	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
24.03.23	Cartagena - Lugo	2:0 ✺
19.03.23	Lugo - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTTLT
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
16.04.23	Málaga - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
07.04.23	Villarreal B - Málaga	1:2 ✺
02.04.23	FC Andorra - Málaga	1:0 ✺
27.03.23	Málaga - Leganés	2:0 ✺
17.03.23	Málaga - Levante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
16.10.22	Málaga - Lugo	3:2
28.05.22	Lugo - Málaga	1:0
23.10.21	Málaga - Lugo	1:0
04.04.21	Lugo - Málaga	0:1
27.11.20	Málaga - Lugo	2:2
23.06.20	Lugo - Málaga	0:0
21.12.19	Málaga - Lugo	1:1

Upcoming Matches