Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 33

Date: 24 March 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Cartagena		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.73	3.3	4.6
	1.75	3.45	4.9
	1.62	3.25	5.8
	1.75	3.5	5.53
	1.63	3.4	6
	1.76	3.56	4.8	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.63)	3.45 ↑ (3.35)	5.19 ↓ (5.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
54.8%

Draw
27.2%

Lugo
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

27.5%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

26.8%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	18.7%	25%

Cartagena - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Lugo will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cartagena: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Cartagena has the most likely position - 8 (13.1%), project points - 58, currently - 44, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), a very small chance of promoted (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (56.3%), project points - 35, currently - 25, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 25, very small importance 8, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Cartagena is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lugo is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Cartagena is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cartagena won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Cartagena won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
19.03.23	Villarreal B - Cartagena	4:2 ✺
12.03.23	Cartagena - FC Andorra	0:3 ✺
05.03.23	Ponferradina - Cartagena	0:3 ✺
25.02.23	Deportivo Alavés - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
17.02.23	Cartagena - Real Oviedo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLWTW
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
19.03.23	Lugo - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Lugo - Zaragoza	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Levante - Lugo	3:1 ✺
18.02.23	Lugo - Eibar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
07.11.22	Lugo - Cartagena	1:1
08.04.22	Lugo - Cartagena	1:0
18.09.21	Cartagena - Lugo	2:1
24.05.21	Lugo - Cartagena	2:1
04.10.20	Cartagena - Lugo	2:1

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