Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 18

Date: 27 October 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Referee: Romero B. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Ameliano		General Caballero JLM

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.15	3.45
	2.35	3.15	3.2
	2.46	3.25	2.70	Watch
	2.14	3.19	3.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.46)	3.21 ↓ (3.25)	3.26 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
42.3%

Draw
29.1%

General Caballero JLM
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.4%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.4%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

General Caballero JLM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and General Caballero JLM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for General Caballero JLM than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sportivo Ameliano will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). General Caballero will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - General Caballero (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. General Caballero (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez M. (G) 16. Aranda P. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 3. Baez F. 37. Lezcano Olmedo T. E. 17. Benitez J. 5. Valdez D. 7. Samudio A. 19. Barreto D. 12. Aranda S. 9. Ocampos C.	1. Guillen L. (G) 14. Rodas A. 5. Caceres L. 16. Gonzalez J. 4. Molinas G. 8. Torales S. 6. Mareco M. 28. Franco J. 30. Diaz E. 10. Arce S. (C) 9. Gonzalez C.
Substitutes
39. Alonso M. 33. Barrientos N. 34. Benitez M. 27. Escobar R. 22. Falabella L. 14. Herrero G. 36. Leon M. 8. Moreira E. 32. Salazar V. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 10. Vera E. 11. Vera F.	25. Aguilera A. D. 22. Arguello V. 18. Armoa J. 27. Fernandez E. 7. Ferreira M. 29. Gimenez O. 20. Rojas M. 21. Schabus M. 12. Tales (G) 15. Villalba V.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Ovelar H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Arce S. ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
27', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Gonzalez C. ⚽, Arce S. (A),
45+2', Rodas A. 🟨,
45+3', Baez F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Benitez J. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
46', Aranda S. ↓, Vera E. ↑,
68', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
70', Samudio A. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
70', Valdez D. ↓, Barrientos N. ↑,
72', Diaz E. ↓, Gimenez O. ↑,
76', 0 - 3, Gimenez O. ⚽, Gonzalez C. (A),
80', Gonzalez C. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
80', Torales S. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
81', 🟨,
82', 0 - 4, Mareco M. ⚽, Arce S. (A),
90+1', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 0.

Sportivo Ameliano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

General Caballero has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

General Caballero may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sportivo Ameliano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.48%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

General Caballero JLM - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.15%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	1:4 ✺
Copa Paraguay
24.09.25	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTLLL
- General Caballero JLM
Copa Paraguay
23.10.25	Cerro Porteño - General Caballero JLM	0:1 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
16.10.25	General Caballero JLM - Atlético Tembetary	1:1 ✺
10.10.25	Sportivo Trinidense - General Caballero JLM	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	General Caballero JLM - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	2 de Mayo - General Caballero JLM	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Paraguay
24.09.25	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	0:1 penalties
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.08.25	General Caballero JLM - Sportivo Ameliano	3:2
16.04.25	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	0:1
02.02.25	General Caballero JLM - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0
25.11.24	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	0:1
13.09.24	General Caballero JLM - Sportivo Ameliano	0:4
20.04.24	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	2:0

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