Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.63	3.60	4.40
	1.62	3.6	4.7	Watch
	1.69	3.93	5.01
	1.74	3.79	4.43	Watch
	1.63	3.85	4.8
	1.65	3.81	4.97	Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.86)	3.71 ↑ (3.4)	4.7 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
55.7%

Draw
24.8%

Sportivo Ameliano
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.4%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Libertad Asuncion's performance.

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Benitez A. 3. Rojas R. 4. Gimenez N. 14. Fretes A. 24. Villalba R. 8. Carrizo F. 6. Campuzano A. (C) 19. Franco I. 11. Vera E. 26. Ramirez I.	35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 5. Benitez H. 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. (C) 15. Rodriguez W. 24. Ayala L. 20. Larralde V. 10. Cabral R. 14. Paez E. 9. Ocampos C.
Substitutes
9. Aguilar G. 35. Diaz E. 20. Fernandez H. 28. Fernandez M. 5. Flores G. 1. Gonzalez A. (G) 7. Manzur A. 33. Martinez C. 10. Melgarejo L. 32. Nequecaur L. 15. Vera T. 22. Villalba P.	4. Aranda P. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 32. Camargo G. M. 40. Contrera A. 39. Dominguez N. 8. Moreira E. 18. Ortiz L. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.
Coaches
Valdez N.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Cabral R. 🟨,
42', Paredes A. 🟨,
42', Carrizo F. 🟨,
45+1', Cabral R. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ayala L. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
46', Franco I. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
57', Villalba R. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
57', Ramirez I. ↓, Melgarejo L. ↑,
59', Paez E. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Moreira E. ⚽,
67', Carrizo F. ↓, Manzur A. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Fernandez M. ⚽,
71', Gimenez N. 🟨,
76', Ocampos C. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
76', Larralde V. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
79', Vera E. ↓, Nequecaur L. ↑,
81', Manzur A. 🟨,
86', Torales R. 🟨,
87', Peralta R. ↓, Aranda P. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

In this matchup, Libertad is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Libertad has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:15 (averaging 1.7:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Libertad against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 18:8 goals (averaging 1.8:0.8 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.41%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	4:2 ✺
02.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLTW
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Trinidense	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
27.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
28.01.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0
18.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2
04.08.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:4
27.04.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:0
16.02.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
25.10.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2

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