Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Federal - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday


	Sportivo Belgrano		Germinal

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.4	6.75
	1.51	3.35	7.2
	1.54	3.14	7.26
	1.57	3.28	8.14	Watch
	1.5	3.2	8.5
	1.54	3.24	7.07
	1.49	3.45	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.72)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	7.45 ↑ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Belgrano
60%

Draw
27.7%

Germinal
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

29.5%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

28.2%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sportivo Belgrano's performance.

Germinal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Belgrano than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Belgrano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Germinal than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Germinal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sportivo Belgrano - Germinal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Ramirez G. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', 1 - 0, Arriola C. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Belgrano
Argentinian Torneo Federal
13.10.24	Germinal - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
07.10.24	Sportivo Belgrano - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Sportivo Belgrano	2:1 ✺
15.09.24	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
06.09.24	Sportivo Belgrano - General San Martín de Formosa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLTW
- CA Germinal
Argentinian Torneo Federal
13.10.24	Germinal - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
06.10.24	Germinal - Douglas Haig	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Douglas Haig - Germinal	1:1 ✺
14.09.24	Germinal - Gutiérrez de Mendoza	2:1 ✺
07.09.24	Ciudad de Bolívar - Germinal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
13.10.24	Germinal - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0

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