Match Info

Premiership - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: The SMISA Stadium (Paisley)

Referee: Clancy K. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	Motherwell TV, St Mirren TV


	St. Mirren		Motherwell

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.65
	2.30	3.30	2.90
	2.55	3.3	2.72
	2.61	3.45	2.81
	2.58	3.34	2.73	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.75
	2.56	3.48	2.76	Watch
	2.65	3.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.59)	3.39 ↑ (3.23)	2.76 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Mirren
37.5%

Draw
28%

Motherwell
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.8%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28.4%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Mirren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Motherwell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motherwell than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

St. Mirren - Motherwell Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. St. Mirren will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Motherwell will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chapman J. (G) 47. Ramsay C. 13. Gogic A. (C) 53. Fieldson H. 3. John D. 8. Carr R. 48. Nsio P. 10. Ramos S. 23. Mochrie C. R. 19. Kabia I. 25. Agrafiotis N.	1. Paulsen A. (G) 7. Sparrow T. (C) 4. Knight-Lebel J. 5. Moormann M. 45. Longelo E. 11. Lowry A. 8. Fadinger L. 71. Hodge J. 19. Said I. 17. Charles-Cook R. 18. Maswanhise T.
Substitutes
6. Jackson L. 5. King R. 37. McEvoy C. 31. Mullen R. (G) 2. Richardson J. 9. Sule E. 30. Taylor F. 16. Thomas L. 20. Young J.	15. Bjorgolfsson E. 13. Kanga J. 21. Matty Connelly (G) 2. O'Donnell S. 47. Palmer-Houlden S. 24. Ross L. 77. Vogt W. 25. Whyte O. 20. Williams D.
Coaches
McLeish C.	Johansson A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Maswanhise T. ⚽, Lowry A. (A),
15', Maswanhise T. (Penalty Awarded),
24', 0 - 2, Charles-Cook R. ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, Nsio P. ⚽, Ramos S. (A),
44', 2 - 2, John D. ⚽, Ramos S. (A),
45+4', 3 - 2, Ramos S. ⚽, Gogic A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sparrow T. ↓, O'Donnell S. ↑,
47', O'Donnell S. 🟨,
52', Moormann M. 🟨,
58', Charles-Cook R. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
58', Maswanhise T. ↓, Kanga J. ↑,
61', Agrafiotis N. ↓, Sule E. ↑,
61', Ramsay C. ↓, Richardson J. ↑,
61', Mochrie C. R. ↓, Taylor F. ↑,
71', Hodge J. ↓, Williams D. ↑,
71', Ramos S. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
73', Said I. ↓, Bjorgolfsson E. ↑,
75', Kabia I. ↓, Young J. ↑,
85', Carr R. 🟨,
89', Young J. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 3, Kanga J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 1.

Recent performances by St. Mirren have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Motherwell has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

St. Mirren may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J. (Knee Injury) Baccus K. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Motherwell: Hendry C. (Knee Injury) McGhee J. (Hamstring Injury) McGinn P. (Knee Injury) Stamatelopoulos A. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in St. Mirren: Mochrie C. R. (Injury) Mullen R. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Mirren won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.4:0.9).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Motherwell: 0.47% St. Mirren: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	St. Mirren	7	3	1	3	8:9	-1	10
9	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8

Last Results with these Odds

St. Mirren - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.86%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Motherwell - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.33%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Mirren
Scottish League Cup
16.08.26	Glasgow Rangers - St. Mirren	5:1 ✺
Scottish Premier League
08.08.26	St. Mirren - St. Johnstone	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Falkirk - St. Mirren	0:2 ✺
Scottish League Cup
26.07.26	St. Mirren - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
21.07.26	St. Mirren - East Kilbride	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWWLW
- Motherwell FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Freiburg - Motherwell	4:1 ✺
20.08.26	Motherwell - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
Scottish League Cup
16.08.26	Stenhousemuir - Motherwell	1:0 AET ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Motherwell - HJK	2:0 ✺
Scottish Premier League
09.08.26	Motherwell - Falkirk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
21.02.26	St. Mirren - Motherwell	0:5
03.01.26	Motherwell - St. Mirren	2:0
Scottish League Cup
01.11.25	Motherwell - St. Mirren	1:4
Scottish Premier League
09.08.25	St. Mirren - Motherwell	0:0
15.03.25	Motherwell - St. Mirren	2:2
07.12.24	St. Mirren - Motherwell	0:1
28.09.24	Motherwell - St. Mirren	2:1

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