Match Info

GERMANY: DFB POKAL - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 30 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Belgium	Eleven Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Eleven Sports 6
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	St. Pauli		Fortuna Düsseldorf

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.75	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5
	1.7	4	5	Watch
	1.69	3.95	5.09
	1.69	4.06	5.2
	1.62	3.7	4.4
	1.69	4	4.91	Watch
	1.67	3.85	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.81)	3.93 ↑ (3.88)	4.88 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
56.5%

Draw
24.1%

Fortuna Düsseldorf
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

24.3%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

23.8%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Fortuna Düsseldorf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	10%	5%

St. Pauli - Fortuna Düsseldorf Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Burchert S. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 23. Treu P. 36. Kemlein A. 10. Hartel M. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 17. Afolayan O. 11. Eggestein J. 14. Amenyido E.	33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 19. Iyoha E. 3. Hoffmann A. (C) 30. de Wijs J. 34. Gavory N. 6. Engelhardt Y. 11. Klaus F. 4. Tanaka A. 8. Johannesson I. 7. Tzolis C. 9. Vermeij V.
Substitutes
19. Albers A. 16. Boukhalfa C. 25. Dzwigala A. 9. Maurides 4. Nemeth D. 26. Saad E. 2. Saliakas M. 15. Sinani D. 22. Vasilj N. (G)	22. Daferner C. 27. Jastrzembski D. 36. Mustapha S. 1. Niemczycki K. (G) 18. Niemiec J. 5. Quarshie J. 46. Suso S. 2. Uchino T. 25. Zimmermann M.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Thioune D.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Fortuna have a series of guest games.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Banks S. (Knee Injury) Zoller S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fortuna: Sobottka M. (Muscle Injury) Zimmermann M. (Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Ahlers S. (Injury)

Last 19 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 22-17.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
27.01.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
20.01.24	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.01.24	Excelsior - St. Pauli	Canceled ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
17.12.23	St. Pauli - Wehen Wiesbaden	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Osnabrück - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WW?TT
- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
27.01.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
21.01.24	Hertha Berlin - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
13.01.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:2 ✺
08.01.24	Dordrecht - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:4 ✺
05.01.24	NEC Nijmegen - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
27.01.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	1:2
05.08.23	St. Pauli - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:0
13.05.23	St. Pauli - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:0
05.11.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	1:0
15.05.22	St. Pauli - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:0
11.12.21	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	1:1
21.04.21	Fortuna Düsseldorf - St. Pauli	2:0

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