Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Weisbach E. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	OneFootball TV


	St. Pauli		Kaiserslautern

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.75	4.10	Watch
	1.83	3.75	4.00
	1.79	4.00	3.90	Watch
	1.85	3.81	4.45
	1.76	3.89	4.37	Watch
	1.81	3.75	4.45
	1.83	3.80	4.15	Watch
	1.82	3.75	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.85)	3.81 ↑ (3.67)	4.19 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
52.4%

Draw
24.9%

Kaiserslautern
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

25.5%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

24.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Kaiserslautern has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaiserslautern than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Kaiserslautern (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 50%). Kaiserslautern (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Voll B. (G) 4. Nemeth D. (C) 6. Mathisen M. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 8. Smith E. 20. Rasmussen M. 23. Oppie L. 18. Hara T. 10. Hrgota B. 19. Kaars M.	1. Krahl J. (G) 33. Elvedi J. 4. Gyamfi M. 14. Rasmussen J. 26. Joly P. 6. Kunze F. 8. Sahin S. 22. Haas M. 11. Kanate I. 7. Ritter M. (C) 17. Yardimci E.
Substitutes
14. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 16. Fujita J. 22. Klein S. 24. Metcalfe C. 33. Mitov D. (G) 7. Niang Y. 21. Ritzka L.	2. Asta S. 20. Berisha M. 5. Frees K. 40. Kamga E. (G) 3. Murphy A. 37. Robinson L. 21. Sauer M. 41. Schramm D. 39. Tazemeta T.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Lieberknecht T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Yardimci E. ⚽, Sahin S. (A),
38', Nemeth D. 🟨,
41', Mathisen M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yardimci E. ↓, Tazemeta T. ↑,
46', 0 - 2, Tazemeta T. ⚽,
55', Mathisen M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
55', Kaars M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Ceesay A. ⚽, Hara T. (A),
60', Rasmussen J. 🟨,
64', Kanate I. 🟨,
67', Kunze F. 🟨,
68', Kanate I. ↓, Berisha M. ↑,
68', Ritter M. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
71', Kunze F. ↓, Robinson L. ↑,
76', Sauer M. 🟨,
83', Hara T. ↓, Niang Y. ↑,
84', Gyamfi M. ↓, Frees K. ↑,
85', Lieberknecht T. 🟨,
89', Ando T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 3.

St. Pauli is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kaiserslautern has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

St. Pauli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kaiserslautern has had a series of away games.

In this match, St. Pauli is the team to beat.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

St. Pauli: 4% Kaiserslautern: 1.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Kaiserslautern	7	3	3	1	6:4	2	12
10	St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

St. Pauli - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.4%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
14.08.26	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	St. Pauli - Deportivo A Coruña	2:2 ✺
24.07.26	Bournemouth - St. Pauli	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTTL
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern
German DFB Pokal
21.08.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Kaiserslautern	0:1 ET ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
15.08.26	Kaiserslautern - Karlsruher	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Wolfsburg - Kaiserslautern	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Kaiserslautern	0:0 ✺
17.07.26	Mainz - Kaiserslautern	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
20.01.24	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	2:0
29.07.23	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	1:2
12.02.23	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:0
07.08.22	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	2:1
17.03.18	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	1:1
13.10.17	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:1
05.05.17	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	1:2

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