Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 2

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Turkey	S Sport+
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World	OneFootball TV


	Holstein Kiel		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.50	2.55	Watch
	2.60	3.50	2.55
	2.48	3.50	2.65	Watch
	2.72	3.65	2.63
	2.43	3.58	2.77	Watch
	2.65	3.60	2.55	Watch
	2.85	3.51	2.40	Watch
	2.65	3.50	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.25)	3.54 ↑ (3.46)	2.58 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
36.2%

Draw
26.8%

St. Pauli
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.1%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

27.1%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Holstein Kiel's form might have worsened.

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 6 - 60%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Holstein Kiel: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - St. Pauli (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 50%). St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 32. Sekine H. 13. Nekic I. 26. Zec D. 40. Parduzi L. 28. Meffert J. (C) 20. Kapralik A. 8. Balzi G. 15. Davidsen K. 11. Bernhardsson A. 19. Harres P.	1. Voll B. (G) 4. Nemeth D. (C) 6. Mathisen M. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Hrgota B. 19. Kaars M. 18. Hara T.
Substitutes
17. Alidou F. 6. Ivezic M. 22. Reimers M. 41. Rothenhagen L. (G) 3. Takahashi N. 30. Tasdelen T. 10. Therkelsen J. 47. Tolkin J. 27. Ugoh I.	14. Ahlstrand E. 17. Banks S. 25. Dzwigala A. 2. Jansson R. 26. Jones R.J. 22. Klein S. 33. Mitov D. (G) 21. Ritzka L. 8. Smith E.
Coaches
Walter T.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
32', 0 - 1, Kaars M. ⚽,
45+2', Rasmussen M. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 2, Hara T. ⚽, Pyrka A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Balzi G. 🟨,
47', Weiner T. 🟨,
49', Fujita J. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Harres P. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
64', Fujita J. ↓, Smith E. ↑,
64', Hara T. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
72', Davidsen K. 🟨,
73', Jones R.J. 🟨,
74', Balzi G. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
80', Hrgota B. ↓, Banks S. ↑,
85', Kaars M. ↓, Klein S. ↑,
86', Parduzi L. ↓, Alidou F. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Therkelsen J. ⚽, Harres P. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Holstein Kiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Holstein Kiel has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:33. (average 1.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 2:1.3).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

St. Pauli: 4% Holstein Kiel: 0.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	8:8	0	7
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
08.08.26	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.26	Hoffenheim - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
25.07.26	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	3:0 ✺
18.07.26	Swansea City - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
15.07.26	Holstein Kiel - Al-Ahli Jeddah	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TLLTW
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
09.08.26	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	St. Pauli - Deportivo A Coruña	2:2 ✺
24.07.26	Bournemouth - St. Pauli	4:1 ✺
19.07.26	St. Pauli - Gorica	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	Babelsberg - St. Pauli	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1
German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:2
29.11.24	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	3:1
German 2 Bundesliga
23.02.24	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4
17.09.23	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	5:1
19.05.23	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4
08.11.22	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	0:0

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