Match Info

NORWAY: ELITESERIEN - ROUND 5

Date: 7 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Nadderud Stadion (Bekkestua)

Referee: Amland S. (Nor)


	Stabæk		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.75
	2.53	3.41	2.95
	2.35	3.3	2.7
	2.42	3.55	2.79	Watch
	2.42	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.76)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)	2.79 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Stabæk
38.5%

Draw
27.7%

Sarpsborg 08
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

27.5%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

27.1%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stabæk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Sarpsborg 08 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarpsborg 08 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stabæk than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stabæk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sarpsborg 08 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	25%	33.3%

Stabæk - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Stabæk will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stabæk: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 6 and 12).

Stabæk has the most likely position - 11 (9.2%), project points - 39, currently - 7, a small chance of relegated (11%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Sarpsborg has the most likely position - 9 (9.32%), project points - 40, currently - 5, a small chance of relegated (9%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, small importance 19, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stabæk won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Sarpsborg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 23 head-to-head matches Stabæk won 4 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 32-43.

Including matches at home between the teams Stabæk won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stabæk Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
30.04.23	Molde - Stabæk	2:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
26.04.23	Stabæk - Brann	0:2 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.04.23	Stabæk - Haugesund	3:0 ✺
16.04.23	Bodø Glimt - Stabæk	4:0 ✺
10.04.23	Stabæk - Odd	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WLWLT
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
30.04.23	Haugesund - Sarpsborg 08	0:0 ✺
23.04.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Odd	0:0 ✺
16.04.23	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	0:2 ✺
10.04.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Bodø Glimt	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.04.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.04.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	2:1
Norwegian Eliteserien
06.11.21	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	4:1
08.08.21	Stabæk - Sarpsborg 08	3:1
Club Friendly
18.04.21	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	2:2
Norwegian Eliteserien
03.10.20	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	4:0
16.07.20	Stabæk - Sarpsborg 08	1:1
29.09.19	Sarpsborg 08 - Stabæk	0:0

Upcoming Matches