Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 21

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Nadderud Stadion (Bekkestua)

Referee: Medic A. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Stabæk		Moss

	1	X	2
	1.30	5.00	7.00
	1.33	5.50	6.50
	1.34	5.25	6.00
	1.34	6.27	7.38
	1.35	5.75	6.65	Watch
	1.31	6.05	7.05
	1.30	5.85	7.49	Watch
	1.30	5.60	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.44)	5.66 ↑ (4.6)	6.86 ↑ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stabæk
70.1%

Draw
16.4%

Moss
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

19.8%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

18.4%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stabæk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stabæk's performance.

Moss has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stabæk than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moss than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Stabæk - Moss Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.75 - over (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ulla M. (G) 2. Riise F. 4. Naess N. 5. Skjelvik J. 29. Ekorness K. 23. Wendt W. 6. Matic A. 21. Krogstad F. 24. Hanstad J. 8. Dahlby M. 20. Rapp G.	1. Eriksen M. (G) 3. Strande K. 5. Jebali O. 24. Njie M. 2. Cassidy M. 19. Overgaard L. 14. Musbaudeen J. 17. Andersen P. 16. Kvale W. 20. Semmen N. 9. Aga O.
Substitutes
33. Aamodt A. 28. dos Santos Jonker D. 16. Hoven A. 14. Lereng E. 1. Lokkevik K. (G) 34. Myklebust L. 18. Oppedal O. 9. Sanyang A. 15. Veum O.	7. Alexandersson N. 26. Chidi E. 21. Gronli S. 31. Harveg J. 23. Hermanstad R. 43. Ibsen N. 22. Ogbole J. 12. Rylandsholm M. (G) 29. Sorensen K.
Coaches
Kjell A.	Bakke G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Aga O. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Semmen N. ⚽, Andersen P. (A),
33', 1 - 2, Krogstad F. ⚽, Hanstad J. (A),
45+1', 2 - 2, Hanstad J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Strande K. ↓, Ibsen N. ↑,
57', Rapp G. ↓, Aamodt A. ↑,
68', Musbaudeen J. 🟨,
71', Njie M. ↓, Alexandersson N. ↑,
77', Skjelvik J. ↓, Veum O. ↑,
77', Hanstad J. ↓, Sanyang A. ↑,
77', Matic A. ↓, dos Santos Jonker D. ↑,
82', 2 - 3, Overgaard L. ⚽,
83', Semmen N. ↓, Hermanstad R. ↑,
87', Ekorness K. ↓, Lereng E. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 14 in the zone OBOS~ligaen (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 1.

Stabæk is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Moss has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stabæk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Stabæk is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Stabæk will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 2:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stabæk won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).

Outrights of Norwegian Adeccoligaen for now

Stabaek: 0.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stabaek	24	14	3	7	57:31	26	45
13	Moss	24	7	4	13	38:54	-16	25

Last Results with these Odds

Stabæk - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 63.1%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stabæk Fotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
30.08.26	Hødd - Stabæk	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Stabæk - Ranheim	4:2 ✺
16.08.26	Egersund - Stabæk	0:4 ✺
08.08.26	Stabæk - Lyn	4:3 ✺
02.08.26	Raufoss - Stabæk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWWW
- Moss FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
30.08.26	Moss - Strømmen	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Moss - Sogndal	2:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
22.08.26	Lørenskog - Moss	0:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
15.08.26	Bryne - Moss	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Moss - Odd	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
30.05.26	Moss - Stabæk	2:2
Club Friendly
29.03.26	Stabæk - Moss	2:0
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
02.08.25	Stabæk - Moss	3:3
27.04.25	Moss - Stabæk	4:2
27.07.24	Stabæk - Moss	1:4
11.05.24	Moss - Stabæk	3:3
Norwegian NM Cup
03.05.18	Moss - Stabæk	0:1 ET

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