Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 45

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Broadhall Way (Stevenage)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Grimsby Town

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	6.5
	1.6	3.7	5.5
	1.63	3.75	5.25
	1.57	4.07	6.41
	1.6	3.6	6
	1.59	3.85	5.9	Watch
	1.57	3.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.83)	3.78 ↑ (3.35)	5.88 ↑ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
59.1%

Draw
24.9%

Grimsby Town
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

28%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

27.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stevenage Borough's performance.

Grimsby Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stevenage Borough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grimsby Town than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Stevenage Borough - Grimsby Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Grimsby will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Stevenage has the most likely position - 3 (49.22%), project points - 82, currently - 79, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (14%), a good chance of promoted (89%), not chance of win league.

Grimsby has the most likely position - 11 (29.62%), project points - 60, currently - 58, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 10, importance 50, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 2.

Stevenage is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Stevenage is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Stevenage won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League Two
25.04.23	Swindon Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
22.04.23	Mansfield Town - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
18.04.23	Stevenage Borough - Doncaster Rovers	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	Stevenage Borough - AFC Wimbledon	2:1 ✺
10.04.23	Hartlepool United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWT
- Grimsby Town
English League Two
25.04.23	Grimsby Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
22.04.23	Tranmere Rovers - Grimsby Town	2:0 ✺
18.04.23	Grimsby Town - Barrow	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	Grimsby Town - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Doncaster Rovers - Grimsby Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
19.11.22	Grimsby Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1
30.01.21	Grimsby Town - Stevenage Borough	1:2
31.10.20	Stevenage Borough - Grimsby Town	0:0
28.01.20	Grimsby Town - Stevenage Borough	3:1
12.10.19	Stevenage Borough - Grimsby Town	2:1
06.04.19	Grimsby Town - Stevenage Borough	0:2
22.09.18	Stevenage Borough - Grimsby Town	1:0

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