Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Sturm Graz		Austria Lustenau

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7.5	Watch
	1.40	4.80	6.75
	1.36	4.55	7.8
	1.39	5.21	7.9
	1.41	4.91	7.26	Watch
	1.36	5.2	8
	1.4	5.12	7.68	Watch
	1.37	5	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.33)	4.97 ↓ (5.13)	7.51 ↓ (7.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
68.5%

Draw
19%

Austria Lustenau
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

18.2%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.5%

17.6%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Austria Lustenau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Austria Lustenau than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Helac A. (G) 28. Heil J. 21. Petrovic P. 5. Vallci A. 18. Soglo E. 43. Hodl J. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 39. Weinhandl L. 19. Seidl S. 17. Wlodarczyk S. 20. Jatta S.	27. Schierl D. (C) 7. Gmeiner F. 15. Chukwu E. 29. Pertlwieser N. 3. Danilo Soares 8. Kacuri D. 11. Weixelbraun D. 20. Afrifa L. 24. Diarra S. 17. Gashi A. 39. Verinac A.
Substitutes
27. Balbo L. 26. Beganovic B. 40. Halwachs J. 11. Kayombo A. 30. Koller P. 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 44. Weiper N. 32. Wiener-Pucher C. (G)	14. Benjamin P. 30. Bohm P. (G) 19. Delaye S. 23. Grabher P. 26. Ibertsberger L. 61. Ismailcebioglu H. 9. Jastremski L. 31. Maak M. 18. Voisine R.
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Mader M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Weixelbraun D. ⚽, Danilo Soares (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
53', Afrifa L. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Jatta S. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Weiper N. 🟨,
67', Soglo E. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
67', Gashi A. ↓, Jastremski L. ↑,
67', Seidl S. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
73', Gmeiner F. 🟨,
77', Weixelbraun D. ↓, Ismailcebioglu H. ↑,
77', Afrifa L. ↓, Delaye S. ↑,
79', Petrovic P. ↓, Koller P. ↑,
79', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
88', Kacuri D. ↓, Grabher P. ↑,
89', Verinac A. ↓, Benjamin P. ↑,
90+2', Mamageishvili G. 🟨,
90+2', Gorenc Stankovic J. 🟨,
90+5', Ismailcebioglu H. 🟨,
90+8', Schierl D. 🟥,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Austria Lustenau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sturm is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Kiteishvili O. (Injury) Rozga F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 1.8:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Sturm Graz: 7.79% A. Lustenau: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	8:9	-1	11
8	A. Lustenau	7	2	2	3	8:11	-3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
15.08.26	Sturm Graz - Rheindorf Altach	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
08.08.26	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
01.08.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWLT
- Austria Lustenau
Austrian Bundesliga
15.08.26	Austria Lustenau - Wolfsberger	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Grazer AK - Austria Lustenau	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Austria Lustenau - Ried	1:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
25.07.26	Kremser - Austria Lustenau	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Nürnberg II - Austria Lustenau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
25.11.23	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	2:0
19.08.23	Austria Lustenau - Sturm Graz	0:1
04.03.23	Austria Lustenau - Sturm Graz	0:2
18.09.22	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	2:0

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