Match Info

Bundesliga - Championship Group - Round 32

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Lechner H. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
World	Onefootball


	Sturm Graz		Rapid Wien

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.7	3.4	Watch
	2.08	3.55	3.25
	2.08	3.72	3.47
	1.91	3.79	3.77	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.25
	2.03	3.6	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.2)	3.63 ↑ (3.41)	3.42 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
46.5%

Draw
26%

Rapid Wien
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

27.7%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27.8%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Rapid Wien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rapid Wien than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Sturm Graz will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Khudyakov D. (G) 5. Vallci A. 2. Mitchell J. 30. Koller P. 43. Hodl J. 39. Weinhandl L. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 17. Karic E. 77. Malone M. 20. Jatta S. 10. Kiteishvili O.	1. Hedl N. (G) 4. Scholler J. M. 55. Cvetkovic N. 6. Raux Yao S. 15. Wurmbrand N. 29. Amane R. 26. Weimann A. (C) 77. Bolla B. 22. Demir Y. 10. Dahl P. 9. Kara E.
Substitutes
26. Beganovic B. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 80. Fosso R. 22. Gazibegovic J. 25. Hierlander S. 11. Kayombo A. 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 8. Rozga F.	20. Ahoussou A. 90. Antiste J. 16. Borkeeiet T. 61. Demir F. 25. Gartler P. (G) 8. Grgic L. 17. Gulliksen T. 21. Schaub L. 7. Tilio M.
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Thorup J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Demir Y. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Dahl P. ↓, Grgic L. ↑,
60', Wurmbrand N. ↓, Ahoussou A. ↑,
62', Malone M. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
62', Weinhandl L. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
72', Hodl J. ↓, Gazibegovic J. ↑,
72', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
84', Karic E. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
86', Weimann A. ↓, Gulliksen T. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Mamageishvili G. ⚽, Gazibegovic J. (A),
90+1', 2 - 0, Hierlander S. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

Sturm is Qualified for Champions League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 2.

Sturm has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rapid is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sturm could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Lavalee D. (Knee Injury) Rozga F. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Rapid: M'Buyi C. (Knee Injury) Marcelin J. (Hamstring Injury) Ndzie M. (Knee Injury) Nunoo D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Sturm: Gorenc Stankovic J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Rapid: Horn J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Sturm Graz: 7.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	SK Rapid	7	6	0	1	21:7	14	18
4	Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
10.05.26	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	2:4 ✺
03.05.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Sturm Graz - Austria Wien	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	LASK Linz - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTTTT
- Rapid Wien
Austrian Bundesliga
10.05.26	Rapid Wien - Austria Wien	0:2 ✺
04.05.26	LASK Linz - Rapid Wien	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Rapid Wien - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Rapid Wien - Hartberg	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Hartberg - Rapid Wien	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
05.04.26	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	0:2
02.11.25	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	2:1
10.08.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:2
18.05.25	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	3:1
04.04.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	2:0
02.11.24	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:1
04.08.24	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	1:0

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