Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Subiza		Peña Sport

	1	X	2
	2.68	3	2.45
	2.58	3.25	2.59	Watch
	2.75	3	2.4
	2.7	3.08	2.39
	2.75	3.14	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.35)	3.09 ↓ (3.25)	2.45 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Subiza
33.7%

Draw
29.3%

Peña Sport
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27.9%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

27.3%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Subiza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Peña Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Subiza than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Subiza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Sport than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Subiza - Peña Sport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
35', 0 - 1, Recalde J. ⚽,
45', 0 - 2, Muro A. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
65', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+10', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Subiza won 4.

Subiza has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Peña Sport is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Subiza won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 2.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Subiza won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 3.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Subiza	5	2	1	2	11:8	3	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Subiza
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
20.12.25	Egüés - Subiza	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Subiza - Huarte	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cortes - Subiza	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Subiza - Oberena	4:0 ✺
09.11.25	Subiza - Bidezarra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWT
- Peña Sport
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
20.12.25	Peña Sport - San Juan	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Beti Onak - Peña Sport	0:0 ✺
03.12.25	Peña Sport - Avance Ezcabarte	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Ardoi - Peña Sport	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Peña Sport - Beti Kozkor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.08.24	Peña Sport - Subiza	0:1
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
26.11.23	Subiza - Peña Sport	4:0
21.05.23	Subiza - Peña Sport	5:3
14.05.23	Peña Sport - Subiza	3:2
11.03.23	Subiza - Peña Sport	2:0
16.11.22	Peña Sport - Subiza	3:0
21.12.19	Subiza - Peña Sport	2:2

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