Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit)

Referee: Aghayev A. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Sumgayit		İmişli

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.84
	2.03	3.21	3.52	Watch
	2.05	3	3.5
	1.98	3.08	3.68
	1.96	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.81)	3.1 ↓ (3.4)	3.63 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumgayit
45.5%

Draw
29.4%

İmişli
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

27.1%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

25.6%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumgayit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumgayit's form might have worsened.

İmişli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sumgayit, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İmişli than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Sumgayit - İmişli Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Sumgayit will win (votes: 7 - 70%). İmişli will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sumgayit: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sumgayit (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Farzullayev K. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 7. Ahmadzada R. 11. Jankovic A. 80. Keffel 19. Kehat R. 25. Moumini A. 10. Ninkovic N. 14. Pinto P. 9. Ramalingom A. 72. Senhadji R.	33. Sinenko A. (G) 9. Almeida D. 29. Banguera E. 23. Diogo Rollo 7. Juninho 10. Karaklajic N. 17. Morgan E. 14. Ronaldo 19. Salahly A. (C) 94. Viegas R. 6. Yaw M.
Substitutes
21. Ahmadzada N. 66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 1. Cannatov M. (G) 71. Murata M. 37. Orujali N. 75. Orujov N. 97. Pashayev V. 6. Rustamli R. 95. Simon N.	21. Agazada A. 99. Ali I. (G) 22. Aliyev I. 5. Inqilably I. 44. Isayev H. 97. Mahmudov K. 30. Mursalli K. 1. Quliyev H. (G) 77. Rahimzada E. 27. Rzayev L. 70. Tahirov M. 3. Yusifli T.
Coaches
Ilic S.	Casquilha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yaw M. ↓, Inqilably I. ↑,
46', Karaklajic N. ↓, Agazada A. ↑,
52', Banguera E. 🟨,
55', Jankovic A. 🟨,
65', Ninkovic N. ↓, Simon N. ↑,
75', Kehat R. ↓, Murata M. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Ahmadzada R. ⚽,
88', Jankovic A. ↓, Rustamli R. ↑,
89', Moumini A. 🟨,
90+1', Diogo Rollo ↓, Rahimzada E. ↑,
90+1', Morgan E. ↓, Aliyev I. ↑,
90+1', Viegas R. ↓, Isayev H. ↑,
90+9', Aliyev I. (Penalty Awarded),
90+11', Farzullayev K. 🟨,
90+12', Ronaldo 🟨,
90+14', Juninho 🟨,

Preview

Sumgayit is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

İmişli is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sumgayit is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Sumgayit will win today's game, with odds of 1.81.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sumgayit won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.25	Difai Ağsu - Sumgayit	1:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.11.25	Shamakhi - Sumgayit	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	2:4 ✺
07.11.25	Gabala - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWLWW
- İmişli FK
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.25	İmişli - Sabah	1:2 ET ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
29.11.25	İmişli - Sabah	0:3 ✺
23.11.25	Neftchi Baku - İmişli	2:3 ✺
07.11.25	Shamakhi - İmişli	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Qarabağ Agdam - İmişli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
13.09.25	İmişli - Sumgayit	1:0

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