Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Location: Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu (Gabala)

Referee: Ahmadov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Gabala		Sumgayit

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	2.98	2.42	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.54
	2.23	3.14	3.07	Watch
	2.81	2.89	2.43
	2.01	3	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.01)	3.02 ↑ (2.99)	2.83 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
35.9%

Draw
31%

Sumgayit
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

30.3%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

31.9%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gabala's form might have worsened.

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sumgayit's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gabala, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sumgayit, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gabala - Sumgayit Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Agayev S. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 13. Aliyev N. 16. Amoah I. 50. Ba Loua A. 74. Damadayev S. 42. Fuchs J. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. (C) 30. Owusu P. 6. Sierra J.	1. Cannatov M. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 7. Ahmadzada R. 80. Keffel 19. Kehat R. 25. Moumini A. 10. Ninkovic N. 14. Pinto P. 9. Ramalingom A. 72. Senhadji R. 23. Vasquez R.
Substitutes
7. Ahmadov R. 94. Hushanov H. (G) 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 26. Mustafayev E. 70. Quimbila P. 17. Ramazanov Q. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I. 10. Shahniyarov S. 21. Shakarkhanov Z. 97. Tagiyev E.	21. Ahmadzada N. 66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 22. Farzullayev K. (G) 3. Haqverdi H. 71. Murata M. 75. Orujov N. 6. Rustamli R. 95. Simon N.
Coaches
Tskhadadze K.	Ilic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Ba Loua A. 🟨,
8', Kehat R. 🟨,
12', Vasquez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', Ramalingom A. (Pen),
54', 0 - 1, Ahmadzada R. ⚽,
65', Ninkovic N. 🟨,
65', Sierra J. 🟨,
66', Ninkovic N. ↓, Murata M. ↑,
67', Fuchs J. ↓, Shahniyarov S. ↑,
67', Ahmadov E. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Ramalingom A. ⚽,
82', Vasquez R. ↓, Ahmadzada N. ↑,
84', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 1.

Gabala is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sumgayit's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gabala might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:15. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.11.25	Sabah - Gabala	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Gabala - Mingachevir	5:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
26.10.25	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	İmişli - Gabala	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Gabala - Shamakhi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLTL
- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
02.11.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Zagatala - Sumgayit	0:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
25.10.25	Zira - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Sumgayit - Karvan	4:1 ✺
04.10.25	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
25.05.24	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0
23.01.24	Gabala - Sumgayit	0:1
29.10.23	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0
19.08.23	Gabala - Sumgayit	1:2
23.04.23	Sumgayit - Gabala	2:3
18.02.23	Gabala - Sumgayit	2:1
29.11.22	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:1

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