Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit)

Referee: Hajiyev F. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Sumgayit		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.87	2
	3.7	2.92	2
	4.01	3.05	2.04
	13.55	4.72	1.26	Watch
	3.72	3.08	1.98
	3.75	2.95	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.39 ↑ (3.41)	3.27 ↑ (2.96)	1.88 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sumgayit
18.1%

Draw
29.9%

Turan Tovuz
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

31.3%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

30%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumgayit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumgayit's form might have worsened.

Turan Tovuz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Turan Tovuz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sumgayit, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Turan Tovuz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cannatov M. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 7. Ahmadzada R. 3. Haqverdi H. 11. Jankovic A. 80. Keffel 71. Murata M. 14. Pinto P. 9. Ramalingom A. 72. Senhadji R. 23. Vasquez R.	1. Baklov O. (G) 15. Hackman E. 88. Hadzhiyev F. (C) 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 5. Miller R. 19. Olabe R. 29. Ozobic F. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J. 21. Souza Alex
Substitutes
21. Ahmadzada N. 66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 22. Farzullayev K. (G) 19. Kehat R. 10. Ninkovic N. 75. Orujov N. 97. Pashayev V. 6. Rustamli R. 47. Xidirov H.	4. Aliyev S. 11. Guseynov A. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 10. Nacafov K. 2. Rzayev A. 77. Rzayev V. 17. Sadykhov R. 41. Samok S. (G) 6. Yusifli F.
Coaches
Ilic S.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Ozobic F. ↓, Sadykhov R. ↑,
35', 0 - 1, Jo Batista ⚽,
37', Murata M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Souza Alex 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Souza Alex ⚽,
64', Murata M. ↓, Kehat R. ↑,
64', Abdullazada S. ↓, Rustamli R. ↑,
72', Souza Alex ↓, Guseynov A. ↑,
72', Ramalingom A. (Pen),
76', Kehat R. 🟨,
79', Vasquez R. ↓, Ninkovic N. ↑,
79', Jo Batista ↓, Nacafov K. ↑,
81', Jankovic A. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 3, Guseynov A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Turan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sumgayit won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.09.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	İmişli - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Sumgayit - Shamakhi	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Sumgayit	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.4 TLLTW
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.09.25	Turan Tovuz - Kapaz	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Turan Tovuz - Gabala	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Turan Tovuz - Araz Naxçıvan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
17.05.25	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	0:1
16.03.25	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	1:2
20.10.24	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	2:4
11.08.24	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	1:0
19.04.24	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	1:4
18.02.24	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	0:0
02.12.23	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	2:2

Upcoming Matches