Match Info

Superettan - Round 27

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: NP3 Arena (Sundsvall) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Beigi R. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play


	Sundsvall		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.75	1.6
	4.50	3.90	1.62
	4.5	3.95	1.65
	4.77	4.33	1.66
	4.45	4.15	1.67	Watch
	4.65	4.2	1.61
	4.29	3.98	1.68	Watch
	4.4	3.85	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (3.64)	4.01 ↑ (3.55)	1.64 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sundsvall
20.5%

Draw
23.1%

Värnamo
56.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.7%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

26%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sundsvall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Värnamo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sundsvall than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Värnamo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sundsvall - Värnamo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Värnamo will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Värnamo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Olsson J. (G) 18. Forsberg L. (C) 3. Hallin M. 4. Hedenquist J. 5. Atlee A. 16. Hansson E. 21. Navik L. 14. Demirol A. 8. Bjork C. 15. Ekong S. 9. Kagayama T.	1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 2. Rapp J. 16. Ravik Z. 3. Bjornstrom A. 8. Andersson H. 26. Johansson C. 10. Claesson V. (C) 11. Ljungberg A. 9. Meriluoto K. 14. Antonsson M.
Substitutes
27. Bahtijar A. 20. Bjornler J. 34. Bjuhr W. (G) 17. Eriksson N. 19. Gojani E. 30. Mambu J. 6. Manchon M. 7. Sandberg M. 29. Sulaiman K.	33. Akinfenwa M. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 7. Johansson C. 24. Kamara M. 4. Ohlsson S. 23. Robertsson L. 39. Selin L. (G) 22. Thern S.
Coaches
Hansen P.	Bergstrand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Hallin M. 🟨,
28', Ekong S. ↓, Sulaiman K. ↑,
37', Motaraghebjafarpour A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', 0 - 1, Meriluoto K. ⚽,
62', Meriluoto K. ↓, Thern S. ↑,
62', Andersson H. ↓, Akinfenwa M. ↑,
68', Bjork C. ↓, Manchon M. ↑,
68', Hansson E. ↓, Gojani E. ↑,
74', Thern S. 🟨,
76', Hallin M. ↓, Sandberg M. ↑,
77', Motaraghebjafarpour A. ↓, Freij E. ↑,
77', Demirol A. ↓, Bjornler J. ↑,
83', Ljungberg A. ↓, Ohlsson S. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sundsvall won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Värnamo carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Sundsvall has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:13 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sundsvall against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 9:6 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Varnamo	28	9	5	14	35:48	-13	32
16	Sundsvall ✔	28	6	1	21	19:65	-46	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GIF Sundsvall
Swedish Superettan
13.10.26	Norrköping - Sundsvall	4:0 ✺
20.09.26	Sundsvall - Ljungskile	3:2 ✺
15.09.26	Landskrona - Sundsvall	4:0 ✺
10.09.26	Sundsvall - Örebro	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Brage - Sundsvall	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWLLW
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
11.10.26	Värnamo - Falkenberg	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Oddevold - Värnamo	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Värnamo - Öster	1:3 ✺
09.09.26	United Nordic - Värnamo	2:4 ✺
05.09.26	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
14.04.26	Värnamo - Sundsvall	3:0
Swedish Allsvenskan
19.10.22	Sundsvall - Värnamo	1:2
11.07.22	Värnamo - Sundsvall	1:1
Swedish Superettan
14.08.21	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:0
18.04.21	Värnamo - Sundsvall	2:1
Svenska Cupen
24.02.18	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:1
Swedish Superettan
21.09.14	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:1

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