Match Info

Date: 19 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: NP3 Arena (Sundsvall)

Referee: Karlsson K. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Sundsvall		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3	3.6	2.15
	3.1	3.8	2.14
	3	3.55	2.14
	3.2	3.87	2.19
	3	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.18	3.64	2.12	Watch
	3.05	3.6	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↓ (3.31)	3.63 ↑ (3.31)	2.14 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sundsvall
30.4%

Draw
25.8%

Värnamo
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sundsvall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sundsvall than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.1%	24.1%	51.7%

Sundsvall - Värnamo Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Sundsvall will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). Värnamo will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Värnamo: 33.5% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 10).

Sundsvall has the most likely position - 16 (88.1%), has project points - 17, has currently - 14, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Värnamo has the most likely position - 10 (30.82%), has project points - 37, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has small quality 13, very small importance 0, very small match rating 7. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sundsvall won 3.

Sundsvall is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Värnamo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Värnamo will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Sundsvall: Blomqvist A. (Red Card) Hallenius L. (Injury)

There will not play in Värnamo: Wallenberg N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sundsvall: Bengtsson J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Värnamo: De Vries F. (Injury) Winsth F. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Sundsvall won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Sundsvall won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GIF Sundsvall
Swedish Allsvenskan
15.10.22	Häcken - Sundsvall	4:1 ✺
09.10.22	Sundsvall - IFK Göteborg	3:2 ✺
02.10.22	Sundsvall - Norrköping	1:3 ✺
18.09.22	Mjällby - Sundsvall	1:1 ✺
11.09.22	Sundsvall - Elfsborg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LWLTL
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
15.10.22	Värnamo - Kalmar	1:3 ✺
09.10.22	Malmö - Värnamo	0:0 ✺
03.10.22	Värnamo - Mjällby	2:1 ✺
17.09.22	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Sirius - Värnamo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
11.07.22	Värnamo - Sundsvall	1:1
Swedish Superettan
14.08.21	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:0
18.04.21	Värnamo - Sundsvall	2:1
Svenska Cupen
24.02.18	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:1
Swedish Superettan
21.09.14	Sundsvall - Värnamo	2:1
17.05.14	Värnamo - Sundsvall	1:0
Svenska Cupen
08.03.14	Sundsvall - Värnamo	0:0

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