Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 1

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Tivoli Stadion Tirol (Innsbruck)

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Swarovski Tirol		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.6	1.71	Watch
	3.75	3.60	1.90
	4.25	3.55	1.78
	4.78	3.67	1.85
	4.03	3.64	1.89	Watch
	4.55	3.6	1.78
	4.87	3.7	1.77	Watch
	4.3	3.6	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (3.59)	3.62 ↓ (3.63)	1.81 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swarovski Tirol
21.6%

Draw
26.1%

Sturm Graz
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

25.7%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

25.3%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swarovski Tirol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swarovski Tirol than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	5%	85%

Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: Sturm Graz will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hamzic S. (G) 5. Murray D. 23. Boras M. 14. Kubatta D. 18. Balic H. 11. Satin M. 43. Celic N. 32. Gschosser R. 8. Baden Frederiksen N. 17. Olakigbe M. 16. Hinterseer L. (C)	53. Khudyakov D. (G) 5. Vallci A. 28. Heil J. 30. Koller P. 43. Hodl J. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 80. Fosso R. 18. Soglo E. 26. Beganovic B. 19. Seidl S. 17. Wlodarczyk S.
Substitutes
15. Bambara M. 13. Eckmayr A. (G) 22. Falkner D. 36. Goiginger T. 3. Gugganig D. 27. Jaunegg D. 31. Neuner M. 9. Ola-Adebomi A. 38. Wieser S.	27. Balbo L. 40. Halwachs J. 22. Helac A. (G) 20. Jatta S. 11. Kayombo A. 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 2. Mitchell J. 21. Petrovic P.
Coaches
Semlic P.	Ingolitsch F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Seidl S. 🟨,
18', Hodl J. 🟨,
19', Soglo E. 🟨,
25', Fosso R. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Wlodarczyk S. ⚽, Soglo E. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Olakigbe M. ⚽, Gschosser R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Beganovic B. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
66', Soglo E. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
72', Hodl J. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
72', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
75', Baden Frederiksen N. ↓, Ola-Adebomi A. ↑,
75', Balic H. ↓, Goiginger T. ↑,
84', Gschosser R. 🟨,
85', Kubatta D. ↓, Gugganig D. ↑,
85', Olakigbe M. ↓, Bambara M. ↑,
89', Hinterseer L. ↓, Falkner D. ↑,
90', Koller P. ↓, Mitchell J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swarovski Tirol won 2.

Swarovski Tirol has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sturm is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sturm will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Swarovski Tirol won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 15:37. (average 0.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Swarovski Tirol won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:18. (average 0.9:2.3).

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Sturm Graz: 7.79% Tirol: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	8:9	-1	11
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Sturm Graz - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 48.28%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austrian OFB Cup
24.07.26	Wieselburg - Swarovski Tirol	0:6 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Hertha Berlin - Swarovski Tirol	3:2 ✺
10.07.26	Swarovski Tirol - Polissya Zhytomyr	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Swarovski Tirol - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
01.07.26	Austria Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLT?
- Sturm Graz
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Hearts - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
24.07.26	Seekirchen - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sturm Graz - Hearts	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Sturm Graz - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
03.07.26	Sturm Graz - MFK Košice	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
14.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:0
03.12.25	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	1:3
07.12.24	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	0:3
31.08.24	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	4:2
25.02.24	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	0:2
01.10.23	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	1:0
19.03.23	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	0:2

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