Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tynecastle Park (Edinburgh)

Referee: Treimanis A. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	ORF 1, ORF On
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
United-kingdom	Hearts TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Hearts		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	1.8	4	3.7	Watch
	1.93	3.70	3.70
	1.82	4.15	3.55	Watch
	1.87	3.92	3.82
	1.86	3.95	3.8	Watch
	1.83	3.8	3.75
	1.89	4.09	3.6	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.97)	3.94 ↑ (3.93)	3.72 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hearts
50.7%

Draw
23.9%

Sturm Graz
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

24%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	14.8%	18.5%

Hearts - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Hearts will win (votes: 36 - 66.7%). Sturm will win (votes: 10 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hearts: 54.1% – 79.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sturm (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Hearts (2.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hearts will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Hearts (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Sturm (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwolow A. (G) 23. Altena J. 64. Fagan-Walcott M. 3. Kingsley S. (C) 18. Milne H. 16. Spittal B. 6. McEntee O. 19. Guendouz S. 89. Kyziridis A. 10. Braga C. 7. Miller C.	53. Khudyakov D. (G) 28. Heil J. 5. Vallci A. 2. Mitchell J. 18. Soglo E. 19. Seidl S. 39. Weinhandl L. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 43. Hodl J. 17. Wlodarczyk S. 20. Jatta S.
Substitutes
77. Ba-Sy A. 28. Clark Z. (G) 17. Findlay S. 30. Fulton R. (G) 11. Kabore P. 29. Kerjota S. 22. Magnusson T. 5. McCart J. 12. Renaud T. 21. Wilson J.	26. Beganovic B. 80. Fosso R. 40. Halwachs J. 22. Helac A. (G) 11. Kayombo A. 10. Kiteishvili O. 30. Koller P. 41. Lorenz E. (G) 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 21. Petrovic P. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Vrancken W.	Ingolitsch F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Kingsley S. ↓, Findlay S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Weinhandl L. ↓, Fosso R. ↑,
61', Vallci A. 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Seidl S. ⚽, Gorenc Stankovic J. (A),
68', 0 - 2, Soglo E. ⚽,
69', Spittal B. ↓, Renaud T. ↑,
69', Guendouz S. ↓, Ba-Sy A. ↑,
69', Miller C. ↓, Kabore P. ↑,
72', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
76', Soglo E. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
77', Hodl J. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
80', Kyziridis A. ↓, McCart J. ↑,
81', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Halwachs J. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-4.

Sturm is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sturm has had a series of home games.

In this match, Hearts is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hearts won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Hearts: 0.15%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heart of Midlothian
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sturm Graz - Hearts	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Hearts - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
10.07.26	Livingston - Hearts	2:1 ✺
Scottish Premier League
16.05.26	Celtic - Hearts	3:1 ✺
13.05.26	Hearts - Falkirk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLLW
- Sturm Graz
Austrian OFB Cup
24.07.26	Seekirchen - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sturm Graz - Hearts	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Sturm Graz - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
03.07.26	Sturm Graz - MFK Košice	2:2 ✺
30.06.26	Sturm Graz - LNZ Cherkasy	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sturm Graz - Hearts	4:0

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