Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 7

Date: 10 September 2024, Tuesday


	Swindon Supermarine		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.6	2.1
	2.8	3.75	2.1
	2.77	4.01	2.1
	2.87	4.04	2.13	Watch
	2.77	3.75	2.13
	2.8	3.75	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (2.94)	3.82 ↑ (3.4)	2.11 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Supermarine
32.8%

Draw
23.9%

Merthyr Town
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

26.6%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

27%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Supermarine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Supermarine than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Merthyr Town aligns with the current prediction.

Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Twamley L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
57', 0 - 2, Ryan-Phillips C. ⚽,
66', 0 - 3, Jarvis C. ⚽,
84', 1 - 3, Reivers G. ⚽,
86', 1 - 4, Twamley L. (Pen),
90+1', 1 - 5, Twamley L. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Swindon Supermarine won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Swindon Supermarine could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Merthyr will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Swindon Supermarine won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon Supermarine won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Supermarine
English Southern League South Division
07.09.24	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	5:0 ✺
English FA Cup
31.08.24	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	1:1 ✺
English Southern League South Division
26.08.24	Hungerford Town - Swindon Supermarine	0:2 ✺
24.08.24	Swindon Supermarine - Havant & Waterlooville	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Hanwell Town - Swindon Supermarine	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTWTL
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
07.09.24	Merthyr Town - Sholing	3:0 ✺
26.08.24	Gloucester City - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:1 ✺
17.08.24	Walton & Hersham - Merthyr Town	5:2 ✺
13.08.24	Frome Town - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
26.12.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	4:1
28.08.23	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	0:3
02.01.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1
29.08.22	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	2:1
18.04.22	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	1:3
08.02.22	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	2:0
01.01.20	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	2:2

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