Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	DAZN Brasil


	São Bernardo		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	2.95	3.9
	1.9	3	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.09	4.51	Watch
	1.9	3.05	4.09	Watch
	1.9	3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.77)	3.02 ↓ (3.31)	4.18 ↓ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
47.9%

Draw
30.3%

ABC
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

27.6%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Bernardo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

São Bernardo - ABC Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - São Bernardo (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - ABC (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 50%). ABC (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 7. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 11. Felipe Azevedo 77. Guilherme Queiroz 3. Helder Maciel (C) 21. Hugo Sanches 33. Kaua Jesus 13. Matheus Salustiano 95. Para 17. Romisson	1. Felipe Garcia (G) 8. Adeilson Maranhao 10. Anderson Rosa 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 9. Danilo Mariotto 27. Ian 21. Lucas Mota 6. Lucas Sampaio 28. Orlando Junior 14. Wellington Reis 15. Windson
Substitutes
32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 35. Foguinho 19. Henry 14. Jefferson Vinicius 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 22. Leo Duarte 30. Lucas Rian 25. Pedro Carrerette 4. Rafael Forster 84. Vanderlei (G) 10. Vitinho	23. Danilo Alves 18. Eduardo C. 2. Ezequiel 20. Islan 19. Juninho 5. Lucas Goncalves 7. Matheus Martins 26. Matheus Rocha 17. Octavio 12. Pedro Paulo (G) 3. Renato Vischi
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Evaristo Piza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Echapora 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 🟨,
56', Wellington Reis 🟨,
64', Anderson Rosa ↓, Juninho ↑,
65', Danilo Mariotto ↓, Danilo Alves ↑,
69', Guilherme Queiroz 🟨,
72', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Bastos R. ↑,
72', Echapora ↓, Sillas ↑,
73', Ian ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
73', Orlando Junior ↓, Eduardo C. ↑,
76', Emerson Santos 🟨,
77', Emerson Santos ↓, Foguinho ↑,
77', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Dudu Miraima ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Eduardo C. ⚽, Danilo Alves (A),
80', Wellington Reis ↓, Lucas Goncalves ↑,
82', Kaua Jesus ↓, Henry ↑,
88', Lucas Sampaio 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,
90+5', Lucas Goncalves 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

São Bernardo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Bernardo is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.25	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
20.02.25	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	São Bernardo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWW
- ABC FC
Club Friendly
05.04.25	Santa Cruz Recife - ABC	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
29.03.25	ABC - América RN	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	América RN - ABC	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	ABC - Laguna	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Laguna - ABC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
28.07.24	ABC - São Bernardo	1:1

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