Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 11

Date: 3 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)


	São Bernardo		Água Santa

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	4	Watch
	1.98	3.1	4
	2	3.1	4	Watch
	2.04	3.05	3.9
	2.02	3.17	4.26
	1.91	3.1	3.8
	1.95	3.15	4.02	Watch
	1.99	3.05	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.98)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	3.97 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
46.7%

Draw
29.9%

Água Santa
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

29.8%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Água Santa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

São Bernardo - Água Santa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (C) 3. Helder Maciel 91. Alan Santos 4. Rafael Forster 66. Vitor Ricardo 23. Wesley Dias 17. Romisson 6. Arthur Henrique 7. Lucas Tocantins 11. Matheus Regis 99. Kayke	1. Ygor Vinhas (G) 6. Artur 3. Walber 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 2. Gabriel Inocencio 5. Kady 8. Igor Henrique 11. Bruno Xavier 10. Luan Dias 7. Neilton 9. Junior Todinho
Substitutes
27. Anareto K. (G) 26. Davi Gabriel 21. Hugo Sanchez 43. Joao Ramos 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 33. Kaua Jesus 14. Luiz Filipe 77. Matheus Martins 8. Rodrigo Souza 88. Silvinho	16. Alex Silva 20. Bruno Mezenga 15. Cristiano 22. Jael 13. Joilson 18. Keke 12. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 19. Rafael Oller 17. Rhuan 14. Robles Fuentes A. 21. Ronald
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Bruno Pivetti

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 2.

Recent matches São Bernardo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Água Santa is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Água Santa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

São Bernardo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Olaria - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.02.24	Santos - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
19.02.24	São Bernardo - Santo André	1:0 ✺
15.02.24	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
10.02.24	Red Bull Bragantino - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLT
- EC Água Santa
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Água Santa - Jacuipense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
15.02.24	Portuguesa - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
11.02.24	Água Santa - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.03.23	São Bernardo - Água Santa	0:1
26.01.22	Água Santa - São Bernardo	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
31.05.21	Água Santa - São Bernardo	2:3 penalties
29.05.21	São Bernardo - Água Santa	0:0
30.04.21	São Bernardo - Água Santa	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.04.16	Água Santa - São Bernardo	0:1

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