Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 11

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, PlayPlus, R7, Sky+, TV Record, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Israel	Sport 2
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.43	4	6.6
	1.42	4.47	7.75
	1.43	4.3	7.47	Watch
	1.4	4	7.5
	1.39	4.3	7.7
	1.43	4	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.39)	4.22 ↓ (4.33)	7.16 ↓ (7.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
65.2%

Draw
21.9%

Ponte Preta
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

21.4%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

20.4%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

São Paulo - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 21. Bobadilla D. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 2. Igor Vinicius 8. Oscar 29. Pablo Maia 13. Diaz E. 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri	12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Maguinho 6. Sergio Raphael 18. Emerson Santos (C) 14. Danilo Barcelos 15. Artur 7. Jean Dias 55. Leo Oliveira 25. Lucas Candido 37. Serginho 29. Everton Brito
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 6. Cedric 33. Erick 32. Ferraresi N. 37. Henrique Carmo 93. Jandrei (G) 20. Marcos Antonio 47. Matheus Alves 36. Patryck 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell	77. Bruno Lopes 26. Concha V. 90. Darnlei 19. Gustavo Lopes 20. Joao Gabriel 27. Luiz Felipe 44. Nilson Junior 28. Pacheco 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 11. Renato 5. Rodrigo Souza 31. Victor Andrade
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Danilo Barcelos 🟨,
24', Jean Dias 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Oscar (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 1 - 1, Artur ⚽,
55', Emerson Santos 🟨,
60', Serginho ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Everton Brito ⚽, Artur (A),
62', Igor Vinicius ↓, Erick ↑,
62', Bobadilla D. ↓, Sabino ↑,
74', Maguinho ↓, Pacheco ↑,
74', Everton Brito ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
75', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
75', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
84', Sergio Raphael ↓, Gustavo Lopes ↑,
84', Leo Oliveira ↓, Concha V. ↑,
85', Franco A. ↓, Cedric ↑,
90+2', Cedric 🟨,
90+6', Gustavo Lopes 🟨,

Preview

São Paulo is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2.

Recent matches São Paulo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ponte Preta is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

São Paulo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match São Paulo is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 24:20 (average 1.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:8 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	São Paulo - Velo Clube	3:3 ✺
10.02.25	São Paulo - Internacional de Limeira	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTTLW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.25	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Mirassol - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
05.02.25	EC Noroeste - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Água Santa - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.02.24	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	2:0
13.02.22	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2
01.03.20	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	2:1
09.02.19	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.09.17	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	2:2
04.06.17	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.17	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	5:2

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