Match Info

I Liqa - Round 24

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)


	Səbail		Cəbrayıl

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.37	4.35	6.7	Watch
	1.37	4.41	6.36
	1.60	4.93	3.77	Watch
	1.36	4.2	7
	1.38	4.4	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.31)	4.46 ↓ (4.75)	6.1 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
64.5%

Draw
20.5%

Cəbrayıl
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

19%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

18.4%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Cəbrayıl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Səbail, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cəbrayıl than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Səbail - Cəbrayıl Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Almeyda A. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Mammadli F. ⚽,
32', 3 - 0, Hasanov H. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
84', 4 - 0, Voronsov R. ⚽,
87', 5 - 0, Safarov Q. ⚽,
89', 6 - 0, Huseynov R. ⚽,

Preview

Səbail is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cəbrayıl has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cəbrayıl may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Səbail is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Səbail won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Səbail won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sabail	3	2	1	0	4:2	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan First Division
23.04.26	Difai Ağsu - Səbail	0:4 ✺
16.04.26	Səbail - Shimal	4:0 ✺
09.04.26	Şəfa - Səbail	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Səbail - Baku Sporting	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Səbail - MOIK Baku	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLWT
- Cəbrayıl FK
Azerbaijan First Division
22.04.26	Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Shahdag Qusar - Cəbrayıl	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Cəbrayıl - Zagatala	3:2 ✺
02.04.26	MOIK Baku - Cəbrayıl	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Difai Ağsu - Cəbrayıl	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
06.03.26	Cəbrayıl - Səbail	1:4
27.11.25	Səbail - Cəbrayıl	0:2

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