Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro


	Tacoma Defiance		North Texas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	4.1	3.75	Watch
	1.75	4.13	4.2
	1.71	4.27	4.05	Watch
	1.82	4.33	3.47	Watch
	1.75	4.1	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.68)	4.19 ↑ (4.17)	3.84 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
53.3%

Draw
22.4%

North Texas
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

22.2%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

22.8%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

North Texas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Texas than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Tacoma Defiance - North Texas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tacoma (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - North Texas (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tacoma (votes: 1 - 50%). North Texas (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Castro J. (G) 44. Gaffney C. 39. Hawkins S. 38. Yamada K. 3. Sousa T. 75. Levva D. 37. Brunell S. 90. Gomez S. 36. Tsukanome Y. 74. Carli E. 95. De Rosario O.	57. Montoya N. (G) 45. Charles I. 22. Alvaro Augusto 4. Cisset M. 24. Torquato J. 6. Essel A. 50. Garcia D. 11. Sarver S. 51. Ramirez A. 17. Contreras J. 10. Sangare F.
Substitutes
47. Alvarez D. 4. Burney L. 31. Diaw B. 40. Dodzi C. 30. Helleren L. (G) 32. Kang J. 48. Khoury J. 45. Kingston P. 93. Minoungou G.	36. Baran D. 5. Bulkeley J. 1. Harms J. (G) 46. Kaakoush I. 79. Orejarena L. 23. Swann C. 34. Urzua A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Charles I. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Sarver S. ⚽, Ramirez A. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Tsukanome Y. ⚽, Gomez S. (A), Brunell S. (A2)
43', Alvaro Augusto 🟨,
45+3', Leyva D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Hawkins S. ↓, Burney L. ↑,
46', Carli E. ↓, Khoury J. ↑,
46', De Rosario O. ↓, Minoungou G. ↑,
57', Brunell S. ↓, Kingston P. ↑,
61', Leyva D. ↓, Dodzi C. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Sangare F. ⚽, Torquato J. (A),
77', 1 - 3, Sarver S. (Pen),
79', 2 - 3, Yamada K. ⚽, Burney L. (A),
83', Kingston P. 🟨,
85', Ramirez A. ↓, Swann C. ↑,
85', Contreras J. ↓, Baran D. ↑,
88', Sangare F. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 3.

Recent performances by Tacoma have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

North Texas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

North Texas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tacoma is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
18.05.25	Portland Timbers 2 - Tacoma Defiance	2:1 ✺
14.05.25	Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Tacoma Defiance	5:0 ✺
US Open Cup
06.05.25	Tacoma Defiance - Portland Timbers	2:3 ✺
MLS Next Pro
02.05.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWW
- North Texas SC
MLS Next Pro
18.05.25	North Texas - Houston Dynamo 2	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Minnesota United 2 - North Texas	0:1 ✺
23.04.25	North Texas - The Town	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	North Texas - Colorado Rapids 2	2:3 ✺
11.04.25	Austin II - North Texas	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
26.10.24	North Texas - Tacoma Defiance	4:1
14.04.24	North Texas - Tacoma Defiance	2:1
19.08.23	North Texas - Tacoma Defiance	2:3 penalties
09.07.23	Tacoma Defiance - North Texas	3:0
08.05.22	North Texas - Tacoma Defiance	1:2 penalties
02.04.22	Tacoma Defiance - North Texas	1:2 penalties

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